Seven of this weekend’s top ten enjoyed a larger result than last weekend, the three that didn’t placed numbers one, two and three. Let’s break this down and put everything aside as the final week of NFL regular season play starts in less than an hour.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
It would have been nice if my #1 film of the year had ended up #1 at the box-office because I would have then taken full credit for the placement regardless of logic. True Grit only dropped 1.4% from its impressive opening weekend and in two weeks has become the Coen brothers’ largest box-office success to date.
With this weekend’s numbers it has now crossed $86.7 million. I guess the question now is just how high will it go?
Result: $24.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $29.54 million, which is $5.04m off for a 20.57% error.
A 4.4% drop for TRON: Legacy means it’s the only other film to actually suffer a drop in the top ten, but it’s a miniscule one and the film has now made over $130 million. How much does this film need to make for a sequel to be greenlit?
It’s made over $65 million in the foreign market, but that $170 million price tag looms large.
Result: $18.3 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.94 million, which is $6.36m off for a 34.75% error.
A 65% increase for Yogi Bear yet, it wasn’t the largest increase of the weekend. That title belongs to The Social Network, which will hit DVD and Blu-ray on January 11th, but still managed to score $500,000 this weekend from 249 theaters, a 78.6% increase from last weekend bringing that film’s box-office total to $93.2 million.
Result: $13 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $5.64 million, which is $7.36m off for a 56.62% error.
Narnia has now made only $87 milion domestically, but $186 million in the foreign markets. These are the kinds of numbers that make you wonder if a sequel will be greenlit with such international success, but remember Eragon back in 2006? Also from Fox, that film made $75 million domestically on a budget of $100 million and over $174 million from foreign markets. Yet, that franchise was never to be heard from again.
Result: $10.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $8.71 million, which is $1.79m off for a 17.05% error.
Tangled and The Fighter are in a deadlock for sixth, though Tangled apparently made $8,000 more so it gets the nod as it made 55.7% more than last weekend.
Result: $10.008 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $5.65 million, which is $4.358m off for a 43.55% error.
The Fighter is up 31.5% from last weekend and has now made over $46 million in four weeks. I still see it as a potential dark horse Best Picture winner; it will be interesting to see how it performs at the SAGs and Golden Globes, not to mention the Critics Choice Awards, which are just two weeks away.
Result: $10 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $7.4 million, which is $2.6m off for a 26% error.
People have pretty much dumped all over Gulliver’s Travels, I never even went to see it so I have no idea how good or bad it is, but it did enjoy a 44% bump this week so someone is interested.
Result: $9.1 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $4.51 million, which is $4.59m off for a 50.44% error.
Black Swan was in 11th heading into Saturday, but managed to leap frog The Tourist and secure a top ten slot for a 27% gain this weekend over last weekend’s $6.2 million.
Result: $8.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $6.07 million, which is $2.43m off for a 28.59% error.
The King’s Speech enjoys its first weekend in the top ten even though the Weinstein Co. have continued to keep it in limited release. Will the strategy of being late to the game work in its Oscar favor?
Result: $7.6 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.91 million, which is $1.69m off for a 22.24% error.
Blue Valentine enjoyed a lengthy bit of promotion recently thanks to a controversial NC-17 rating that ultimately resulted in an R-rating and now $180,000 in its opening weekend from four theaters for a $45,000 average. The film opened on Wednesday and has now managed $278,000 in five days. Is it enough to entertain a dark horse Best Picture slot?
The other film worth discussing in limite release is Sofia Coppola’s Somewhere, which remains in only eight theaters where it made $143,000, a $17,875 per theater average.
This weekend the only upcoming new release is Relativity’s Season of the Witch, a film I have not been invited to a press screening for and have heard is not a film you would rush to call “good”. Will it take the box-office #1 or will the battle remain between Fockers and Grit?
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