Oscar Update: ‘The Social Network’ Moves Back into the Best Picture Driver’s Seat

The memories of Academy members have always been seen as short term. This isn’t because of physical examinations performed by doctors or intense scientific studies, it’s simply because the record shows that films released later in the year tend to take home the Oscar kudos more than those released earlier.

Certainly, there are exceptions to every rule and we had one just last year with the early summer release, The Hurt Locker, winning six Oscars including Best Picture. Before that, the May releases of Crash, Gladiator and Braveheart won Best Picture with other early releases such as Forrest Gump in 1994 and The Silence of the Lambs in 1992 taking the top prize. However, that’s just six films out of the last 20 years that were released before August.

I don’t say this as a major revelation, but it is a fact that has studios holding films until the last second for whatever reason, hoping to secure Oscar glory, or perhaps to give voters only a short span of time to consider the films, hoping they’ll vote for a less deserving film due to a lack of time for proper consideration. Films such as Paramount’s The Fighter and True Grit are clearly this year’s two major contenders being held until the last second. Another would be Sony Classics’ Another Year, which they ushered out at Cannes and again in Toronto, but they seem to be holding back the big guns until a little later this month (though screeners have already been sent out), unlike The King’s Speech, which seems to have lost a little of its luster as of late. The one film that seems the most steady is The Social Network, and it’s gaining some serious steam.

Last night Mark Zuckerberg was featured on CBS’ “60 Minutes”. It was a broadcast many called an extended commercial for The Social Network, a “commercial” that even had Zuckerberg pulling a 90-degree turn on the film he hasn’t been in favor of since its inception. Melena Ryzik at the New York Times points out the following exchage:

“I can’t tell you how many messages I’ve gotten from people who use Facebook writing in to say this movie was really inspiring to me — ‘after seeing this movie I want to start a company, or I want to go into computer science, or I want to study math,'” Mr. Zuckerberg told Leslie Stahl on “60 Minutes” Sunday night.

“If the movie had that effect on people, that’s awesome, right? I mean, that’s great.”

“You almost sound enthusiastic about this movie,” Ms. Stahl said.

“That part,” he replies.

Before this, The Social Network was named Best Feature of 2010 by the National Board of Review and just this morning the Washington D.C. film critics also named it Best Film as well as bestowing upon it their Best Director (David Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay (Aaron Sorkin) awards. It’s for this reason I’ve updated my Best Picture Oscar predictions, moving Fincher’s feature into the top spot.

It’s hard to deny the tide has obviously turned, and with The King’s Speech already in theaters and the reviews having been written, Speech is looking more like a multiple nominee and perhaps a couple of wins, but the top prize is looking more and more likely it will go elsewhere.

So has it become The Social Network‘s to lose?

As you can see from my chart to the right I’ve been busy moving a few titles around. I’ll be seeing The Fighter soon enough so I’ll finally be able to see if it’s the contender I’m currently wagering it is, and while True Grit earned some warm early reviews I can’t tell if that’s more out of Coen love or out of love for the film. Unfortunately I don’t see True Grit for another ten days so it’s going to be a while before I can weigh in myself.

Two films I’ve had a hard time placing are Toy Story 3 and Inception, primarily because Winter’s Bone and The Town have become serious contenders for a Best Picture nominee in the past few days.

The success of Winter’s Bone has been well documented from it’s Gotham Awards win, its several nominations at the Spirit Awards and being named one of the year’s eleven best by the National Board of Review. It’s always been assumed star Jennifer Lawrence would be nominated for Best Actress, but only recently was its Best Picture prospects truly confirmed.

As for The Town, it was awarded Best Ensemble cast by the NBR and the D.C. Film Critics and should the trend continue it will be looked upon highly at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and if it does well there I find it hard to believe it won’t end up one of the ten nominees. And if it’s named one of the five Best Picture (Drama) nominees at Golden Globes on December 14 you better believe I think it will be one of the ten.

So that leaves me to wonder, just what are the prospects for Toy Story 3, Inception and my two bubble line features of the moment — Another Year and The Kids are All Right.

I am 95% positive Toy Story 3 will be named one of the ten and I also feel, by January 25, Another Year will also be in there, but Inception and The Kids are All Right seem to be wavering.

Of course, Inception is likely to get a nom simply due to the fact it will help with ratings. It was also named one of the year’s best by the NBR and recently scored 11 nominations from the International Press Academy. This pretty much leaves The Kids are All Right, a film I’m feeling the love has faded and I’ve also recently bumped Natalie Portman (Black Swan) and Lesley Manville (Another Year) above Annette Bening in my Best Actress predictions. Do the Kids still have the juice or is it a falling star?

The two films I’ve yet to mention from the list of 12 I’ve included here are 127 Hours and Black Swan. Both I feel are locks for nominations, but Black Swan is one I had a hard time placing as well. It was blanked by the National Board of Review, but over this past weekend it opened in only 18 theaters and scored $77,444 per theater, a Fox Searchlight record. Not to mention, Manohla Dargis recently wrote up a three-page rave for the film concluding, “Much like the new version of ‘Swan Lake’ that Thomas creates, Black Swan is visceral and real even while it’s one delirious, phantasmagoric freakout.” I don’t see any chance of it falling out of the list of ten.

So as much as last year was all about the one film that was released June versus the mammoth that was released in December, this year clearly looks like it’s a battle of the late bloomers. However, even while that’s the case it appears the Best Picture race is already a two film battle unless a critical group or award show throws a serious speed bump in the works. The King’s Speech won five awards at the British Independent Film Awards just yesterday taking home Best Film, Best Screenplay, Best Actor (Colin Firth), Best Supporting Actor (Geoffrey Rush) and Best Supporting Actress (Helena Bonham Carter). More of that couldn’t hurt, but preferably from a stateside org.

As for upcoming events and kudos that will help shape the race, the Los Angeles Film Critics name their favs on December 12, New York Film Critics Circle announces on the 13th, Golden Globe noms are announced on the 14th, SAG on the 16th and the Satellite Awards will be held on the 19th. You can check out the current awards schedule right here and all of my updated predictions right here.

Now is your turn to comment… Any thoughts? What ten films do you see making the Academy’s list of Best Picture nominees?