The Producers Guild of America unveiled their nominees for Best Documentary this morning and I can’t quite get a grasp on what to expect from this category this year in terms of the Oscar race.
I know the online masses will likely favor Banksy’s Exit through the Gift Shop, and while I see that one getting a nom I’ve backed off my stance of it being the frontrunner; not to mention if it’s not included on the PGA’s list of six. Another film not listed by the PGA is Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger’s Restrepo, which I have yet to see but just received a screener and I can’t help but feel an industry vibe that this one is going to get into the Oscars.
Personally, I see it as a two-way race between Charles Ferguson’s Inside Job and Davis Guggenheim’s Waiting for “Superman” though I would love to see Amir Bar-Lev’s The Tillman Story start generating a bit more buzz.
A group of online bloggers have been sharing their thoughts through email correspondence recently and when discussing the PGA doc noms and trying to predict what they see happening with the Oscars, many pointed to the support “Superman” has received from the likes of Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and Oprah as a sign it’s the clear frontrunner. They may be right, though I wish they weren’t since I didn’t get nearly as much out of Waiting for “Superman” as others did.
Of the PGA’s noms four are included on the Academy’s shortlist of 15 contenders and I’ve added an * next to those four. Check the list directly below.
- Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer *
- Earth Made of Glass
- Inside Job *
- Smash His Camera
- The Tillman Story *
- Waiting for ‘Superman’ *
After looking at this I’ve also taken another look at the quick Oscar predictions I posted when the Academy listed their shortlist. I’ve also officially added my Documentary predictions to “The Contenders” section right here. However, please note that of the 15 films on the Academy’s shortlist I have only seen five of them and only heard talk surrounding two others. So my predictions are only ranking the seven I have heard any buzz on and/or actually seen. As that changes my predictions will obviously change, but I am working from a disadvantage at the moment.
That said, here’s where I currently stand on the category:
- Inside Job
- Waiting for “Superman”
- Exit Through the Gift Shop
- The Tillman Story
- Restrepo
I previously had The Lottery in the top five, but it seems the chatter around “Superman” will squash that film and I’ve moved Exit Through the Gift Shop down from my previous prediction, though I can still see that film gaining a head of steam should the right supporters speak loudly enough. You can check out my full list right here.
The PGA will announce their winners on January 22.
