The toon held over to take the #1 spot yet again, which gives Laremy another victory at the top of the heap. This week Laremy saw his average percentage of error at only 25.37% with six accurate placement predictions. Let’s see how it breaks down.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row
Fox’s newcomer, Unstoppable was Friday’s #1, but as expected it couldn’t hold on to that spot over Saturday and Sunday against the more family friendly animated feature. Budgeted at $100 million, this flick is going to need a lot of overseas help to turn a profit because a $23.5 million opening weekend isn’t going to cut it domestically.
As far as user predictions go, it would seem a lot of you looked at Denzel and Tony Scott’s return for The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 and expected much of the same as both John-PT and Kid were exactly right with $23.5 million predictions. Kudos.
On a side note, before you read any further, if you haven’t watched the “Saturday Night Live” spoof of Unstoppable stop reading now and click here.
Result: $23.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $21.175 million, which is $2.325m off for a 9.89% error.
Coming in third is another holdover from last week, Warner Bros.’s Due Date, which is now up to $59 million and with foreign receipts should find profitability, though a 52.5% drop isn’t exactly spectacular. This one obviously isn’t going to enjoy the run The Hangover saw last year where it actually never fell more than 44% from one weekend to the next and that was in its second to last weekend back in December 2009 after opening in June.
Result: $15.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $18.687 million, which is $3.187m off for a 20.56% error.
In fourth is the latest addition to the alien invasion genre, Skyline, which was hidden from the majority of critics and performed modestly considering it was only working with a $10 million budget. However, I would assume that’s well before prints and advertising, but this one should still pull profit after an $11.6 million opening.
Looking at the user predictions on the board DamienB predicted a massive $40.2 million and even the usually reliable prognosticators The Check Spot and Chuck Bartowski both went with $30+ million predictions. It was obviously the toughest call of the week as Laremy even overshot the total by a rather wide margin with a $19.4 million prediction.
The closest on the board was Kid’s prediction of $11.5 million with red zorro and goavs coming in second with solid $10.4 million calls.
Result: $11.6 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $19.474 million, which is $7.874m off for a 67.88% error.
In fifth was the weekend’s other new wide release although Morning Glory was working at a slight disadvantage after opening on Wednesday. I say “slight” because in those first two days it only earned $2.6 million so there were still a lot of people that hadn’t seen it. Nevertheless, it wasn’t able to crack double digits with only $9.6 million for the three-day, which is unfortunate because it’s a far more enjoyable movie than most reviews painted it to be.
After looking through all the user predictions, not a single one of you predicted the film would do less than $10 million, but then again, some of you didn’t even wager a guess for the film. Mason Williamson was the closest with an $11.2 million call and right behind him was Sean R predicting $11.4 million.
Result: $9.6 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $11.96 million, which is $2.36m off for a 24.58% error.
In sixth was Tyler Perry’s latest, which suffered a whopping 65.4% drop in its second weekend. It would seem R-rated features aren’t exactly what Perry’s audience prefers.
Result: $6.7 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $10.724 million, which is $4.024m off for a 60.06% error.
Red continues to perform, dropping only 40.9% this weekend and ending the three-day just shy of $80 million domestically and raising its worldwide total to over $106 million. The geriatric film that could.
Result: $5.1 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6.376 million, which is $1.276m off for a 25.02% error.
Paranormal Activity 2 has now made $82 million on a $3 million budget and I didn’t hear a lot of negativity from moviegoers for this one, which tells me most people were satisfied. This is why I’m surprised we haven’t heard word of a Paranormal Activity 3 yet.
Result: $3 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $3.024 million, which is $0.024m off for a 0.8% error.
Saw 3D is already looking up at its supernatural competition, falling behind the franchise that stole its Halloween thunder as not only 3D could add much life into the dwindling franchise.
Saw 3D is currently in sixth place on the franchise totem pole with $43.4 million. In fifth is the first Saw with $55.1 million and I don’t necessarily think it will be able to reach that mark.
Result: $2.7 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $3.092 million, which is $0.392m off for a 14.52% error.
Rounding out the top ten is Paramount’s Jackass 3D. I pray the Jackass boys worked out good deals for themselves because I know on the first film they got pretty much screwed, did a little better with Number 2 and expect they wouldn’t return to putting themselves in harm’s way without a much larger cut. Good on them.
Result: $2.3 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $2.758 million, which is $0.458m off for a 19.91% error.
As for a few notable films that didn’t crack the top ten, Fair Game brought in $1 million from 175 theaters, 127 Hours earned $453,000 from 22 theaters and IFC’s limited release of Tiny Furniture was the weekend’s per theater winner with $22,450 from one location.
Now comes time to look to the future and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, which opens next Friday. The only tracking I’ve seen so far says it’s looking at something around $130 million. Is this what you see? Hash it out in the comments below.
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