I’ve been meaning to do an Oscar update for a while now, but not enough has really happened to generate too much conversation until just recently. Today I took a peek at my current predictions for Best Picture, Actor, Actress and the Supporting categories and only two categories really stood out in terms of needing some adjusting. The first was Best Supporting Actor.
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR | |
| Rank | Nominee |
| 1 | Christian Bale (The Fighter) |
| 2 | Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech) |
| 3 | Sam Rockwell (Conviction) |
| 4 | Jeremy Renner (The Town) |
| 5 | John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone) |
| CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE CHART | |
With the recent screenings of The Fighter that took place in both New York and Los Angeles the response has been quite impressive so far. The overall opinion seems to insist the film is a certain Best Picture nominee and Christian Bale is the front-runner for Best Supporting Actor. The mood around Mark Wahlberg and Amy Adams seems like a question mark in terms of Oscar consideration, but it sounds like Melissa Leo is still one to watch out for (she’s my current #1).
It also sounds like we may be talking about an Original Screenplay nod for Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson as well as an editing nom for Pamela Martin for The Fighter. What may be interesting is the Academy’s approach to director David O. Russell, who’s relationship with AMPAS and Hollywood in general is a bit prickly.
With this in mind, I immediately sent Christian Bale leapfrogging over Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech), establishing a new front-runner. A screening of the film has not yet been set here in Seattle and I have not seen it, but the fact Rush has already won an Oscar (Shine in 1996) and been nominated two other times, it seems the never-nominated Bale is the much more attractive choice in this case. Not to mention an actor many would consider “deserving.”
I also did a little shuffling below the bubble line, moving Andrew Garfield (The Social Network) to the #6 slot, just ahead of Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right) and Josh Brolin (True Grit). Obviously, not having seen True Grit, The Way Back or How Do You Know yet, this is a category that could still see some shaking up.
| BEST DIRECTOR | |
| Rank | Nominee |
| 1 | David Fincher (The Social Network) |
| 2 | Danny Boyle (127 Hours) |
| 3 | Christopher Nolan (Inception) |
| 4 | Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) |
| 5 | Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) |
| CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE CHART | |
As for those Best Director predictions, I’m not sure when the last time I updated those was, and while my top five remains the same the order has changed ever so slightly.
Now at the top I have David Fincher for The Social Network. Typically the film that wins Best Picture ends up winning Best Director and vice-versa, but this year I think there will definitely be a split. I would have loved to have left Danny Boyle (127 Hours) in the #1 slot, but the fact he’s recently won and Fincher is looked at as deserving a win is the main reason for the current placement.
Outside of my previous mentioning of Russell’s chances (I currently have him at #6), the other interesting choice here is Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan. This is a film likely to be nominated several times over and it could end up sweeping the top categories such as Picture, Actress (Natalie Portman) and director, but it could also just as easily be a movie with several nominations that doesn’t make a mark on the ceremony. The tone of the film is sure to be the issue making for a rather interesting group of Best Picture candidates.
My Best Picture top five remains:
- The King’s Speech
- The Social Network
- 127 Hours
- True Grit
- Black Swan
A case could be made for any of those films, although we are all still waiting for any kind of word on True Grit, which Paramount is smartly holding close to the chest.
I considered moving 127 Hours above Social Network in this update, but the arguments for and against just couldn’t get me to do it. Folks in Los Angeles finally got a chance to see Black Swan and are pouring love all over Aronofsky’s film, which recently launched it’s official site on top of the first TV spot, which I just added to the site and you can watch to the right.
How will all of these films shake out? Will The Fighter become one of the top candidates? Are Inception or Toy Story 3 serious candidates for the top prize? How about Lionsgate’s Rabbit Hole? I currently have it listed in the #17 slot based on the fact I see it more as a major acting contender rather than a picture contender. Want proof?
Yesterday Lionsgate sent over this clip from Rabbit Hole and it perfectly illustrates why I have Dianne Wiest among my top five Best Supporting Actress candidates. The scene doesn’t say as much about Kidman’s performance, though, but she is a marvel in the film. To be honest I don’t think you should necessarily watch the clip below considering it offers much more to the story arc than you are able to grasp with this short clip, but that’s not a choice that’s up to me. If you’re interested check it out below, but Rabbit Hole is a film you should see with as fresh a viewpoint as possible.
As always, you can keep up-to-date with all of my Oscar coverage and predictions in the RopeofSilicon “The Contenders” section of the site.
