Oscar Update: Best Actress and Supporting Actress Prediction Updates

As I pointed out one article so we could focus on the matter at hand today as opposed to debating her placement as lead vs. supporting.

We’ll begin with the Best Actress category, which I believe has a clear leader in Annette Bening for The Kids are All Right, but don’t confuse that with me thinking she has the best performance of the year. This is a “she’s been nominated three times and never won before” kind of prediction. Natalie Portman is far better in Black Swan than Bening is in Kids and Lesley Manville is ten times better than both of them in Another Year. But none of that really matters when it comes down to “Best vs. Deserves” at the Oscars.

In fact, Bening’s front-runner status is a bit of a 50/50 crap shoot when you look at other predictions around the Internet with others placing Portman ahead of her. Personally, Portman’s performance, and Black Swan overall, doesn’t seem to me as a film that’s directly in the Academy’s wheelhouse. A bit too dark if you ask me.

Another issue with Bening is the recent indecision on Focus Features’s part as to whether to push both Bening and co-star Julianne Moore equally or put more effort into Bening seeing as how she’s the one most Oscar pundits have grabbed hold of. Truth is (my truth at least), Moore blows Bening out of the water in The Kids are All Right, yet I have Moore in the #9 slot in my predictions. What’s up there?

Moore has been nominated four times without winning, does she not deserve it just as much? That’s a question it doesn’t seem I’m the one to answer, primarily because I would say she deserves it more… Both Scott Feinberg and Jeff Wells have been discussing the issue as well, click on their names for their take. As for the “conundrum” over which to push for an Oscar, unless Focus is chicken, you push them both equally and see where things end up.

I strongly feel Nicole Kidman’s performance in Rabbit Hole will blow people away once more see it and Jennifer Lawrence’s performance in Winter’s Bone seems like a sure thing for the young actress who will be awarded the Rising Star Award at the Palm Springs International Film Festival’s 2011 awards gala, an award Anna Kendrick won last year before being nominated for an Oscar for Up in the Air.

While those five ladies (six if you count Moore) make for the category’s front-runners there are some ladies that will be nipping at their heels as the season continues on. Michelle Williams is great in Blue Valentine, a film that benefits greatly from performances over material, and last week I saw Made in Dagenham, which proves Sally Hawkins is one of the best and most underrated actresses working today. She’s brilliant in the film and if the picture is embraced as it should be she could be a major contender.

The one name that faded the hardest for me recently was Anne Hathaway for Love and Other Drugs, a Jerry Maguire knock-off that doesn’t come close to living up to the hype that was generated earlier this year. The film starts off all right with both Hathaway and co-star Jake Gyllenhaal charming the pants off the audience, but as it moves on it just gets worse and worse to the point you are waiting for the “You complete me” and “You had me at hello” quotes at the end. I don’t see a nomination in Hathaway’s future, though the film will certainly enjoy a major push as it was just announced Hathaway will follow Scarlett Johansson one week later as host of “Saturday Night Live” on November 20, four days before the film’s release.

Moving into the Supporting Actress category, you could probably pick names out of a hat and come as close as I can at this time to predicting who will be nominated, let alone who’s the front-runner to win.

At this time my #1 is the unseen performance of Melissa Leo in The Fighter. If you ask me why, like a three-year-old I’ll reply, “Because.” Seriously, this is merely a guess based on the fact I don’t think I’ve seen anything yet that screams, “She’s the one!” Which is primarily the reason Lesley Manville’s Another Year performance, which could easily be considered supporting, belongs on this list.

Behind Leo I have Helena Bonham Carter for The King’s Speech, a performance certainly not good enough to win and perhaps may not even be nominated, but she has a big name and she’s in a film that may end up earning the most above the line nominations this year. Behind her I have a much stronger performance from Dianne Wiest in Rabbit Hole along with Miranda Richardson in Made in Dagenham and Dale Dickey for Winter’s Bone. Wiest I have a strong feeling will be nominated, but I think Dickey is on her way out while Richardson has one of those performances as Secretary of State for Social Services, Barbara Castle, that could get in just as easily as it could be forgotten.

Below the bubble line are several names that could just as easily replace my top five.

I’ve yet to see Elle Fanning in Somewhere, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit or Diane Keaton in Morning Glory, all of which are potential performances that could propel them to front-runner status. I thought Rosamund Pike was solid in Made in Dagenham and wouldn’t be surprised to see some serious movement for Barbara Hershey’s performance in Black Swan.

A recent newcomer to the list is Jacki Weaver’s performance in Animal Kingdom that has started creeping up again as screeners were sent out not too long ago and a For Your Consideration campaign has started to mount itself. I wasn’t as big a fan of that film as most were, but based on a lot of sentiments it is a possibility.

Beyond those names, my complete list stretches to 21 names so to check that out as well as the complete list of Best Actress contenders I currently have listed click here. Besides that, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments below, tell me where I’m wrong and where I’m right and we’ll see if we can come to a proper conclusion together.