Well, well, well… This was the biggest weekend since The Expendables opened back on August 13 and it’s all due to the surprise success of Jackass 3D. I have plenty to say along the way and a lot to add in my conclusion so let’s get started and begin chatting in the comments below.
Summit’s Red got off to a very nice start with an estimated $22.5 million from 3,255 theaters. Laremy was a bit low in his predictions, but several of the commenters had this one cracking $20 million with Chuck Bartowski’s $23.5 million call coming closest.
This is a film, however, I don’t expect will have legs to go very far.
Result: $22.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $16.92 million, which is $5.58m off for a 24.8% error.
David Fincher’s The Social Network had a miniscule drop of only 28.8% with another $11 million added to its coffers bringing the film’s domestic total up to $63 million in its first three weeks. Is it possible there’s another $37 million left in the tank to make this one a $100 million earner?
Result: $11 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.28 million, which is $0.28m off for a 2.55% error.
Disney’s Secretariat made a bit of a second weekend recovery with only a 25% drop, but that opening weekend $12.6 million makes a second weekend of $9.5 million a bit underwhelming, especially when Disney expected much better for what was once thought as a potential Best Picture nominee.
Result: $9.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $6.98 million, which is $2.52m off for a 26.53% error.
Secretariat can hold its head high in at least one regard, it didn’t lose again to Life as We Know It. However, a $.3 million gap isn’t much before actuals are counted and Life as We Know It still holds a slim $1.3 million lead on Secretariat overall.
Result: $9.2 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6.93 million, which is $2.27m off for a 24.67% error.
Zack Snyder’s animated owl movie continues to drop slowly, but it just didn’t make enough money in its opening weekend to have it mean anything. Only a 38% drop this weekend brings in a meager $4.2 million in its fourth weekend bringing its gross total to $46 million. Not too good when you consider this is a project reported to have a $100 million budget before prints and advertising.
Result: $4.2 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $4 million, which is $0.2m off for a 4.76% error.
The Town, however, has made up its $37 million budget and now sits at $80 million for the year after a series of weekends showing small drops in the 35-37% range. This week was no different.
Result: $4 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $3.96 million, which is $0.04m off for a 1% error.
The budget is reported to be around $70 million on this one and the film is now just reaching the $48 million mark. Not exactly what Fox was hoping for. I wonder if the film had gone for a darker, less redemptive ending if this film would have done better.
On a side note, I think Laremy deserves some credit for nailing the complete top ten in terms of position, not to mention having an average percentage of error of only 17.25% this week. Round of digital applause please?
Result: $2.3 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $1.73 million, which is $0.57m off for a 24.78% error.
In other news, there were a couple of limited releases this weekend for a couple of bigger films.
First, Clint Eastwood’s Hereafter (my review) won the per theater crown this weekend with $231,000 from six theaters ($38,500 per), but Tony Goldwyn’s Conviction (my review) wasn’t as lucky with only $110,000 from 11 theaters ($10,000 per).
Personally I don’t see Conviction doing too well, but perhaps Gloria Allred’s frivolous lawsuit will energize viewers that haven’t already seen the film at one of Fox Searchlight’s many free public screenings.
As for next weekend, just how well will Paranormal Activity 2 perform? The first one opened in only 12 theaters and went on to make $107 million after a 17 week run. The sequel is currently looking at an estimated 2,900 theaters in a wide opening. How will it compare?
Additionally, did you know Saw 3D is going to open a little early in some areas the following weekend? On Thursday, October 28 showings for the proposed final installment in the franchise will begin at 8 PM and audience members will get collectible 3D glasses. You better believe Lionsgate will be adding those totals to its three-day weekend as the battle for horror supremacy versus Paranormal Activity 2 gets underway.
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