Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 17 – Sep. 19, 2010

The third weekend of September 2010 should match up nicely with the same weekend in September of 2009. Both weekends had a top twelve under $90m, both had four wide releases which signaled Hollywood was awake again. Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
I liked it better than Brad, but it will probably come down to your relationship with Heat. If you’ve never seen that one you’ll be relatively happy, otherwise it will come off a little worse by comparison.

Still, that’s not a dealbreaker for me. Ben Affleck clearly has a directorial eye, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pivot towards more directing jobs in the future. Financially, I see about $8,000 per screen, more than enough to win the weekend against more niche genre offerings.

Prediction: $21.6 million

This is a wildcard. Will the teens show up to support Emma Stone’s coming out party? It should end up with the most theaters of the new releases (just so you know I’m posting this early without final theater totals so Brad can post from Toronto before his flight), and that 90 minute running time is friendly, but I’m not sure it’s low concept enough to really bank.
Prediction: $15.69 million
It could do just about any number. On the plus side people love the suspense genre. But M. Night Shyamalan’s limited involvement could scare people away.
Prediction: $13.61 million
It’s not getting enough theaters to make a charge, and parents may hold off until next weekend’s Legend of the Guardians.
Prediction: $12.9 million
A 62 percent dip, fairly typical for the franchise.
Prediction: $10.12 million
And then there is everything else. We’ll buzz through these because they will all make about the same paltry amount.
Prediction: $2.83 million
At least it caused conversation, and the $20m production budget leaves them in a decent financial position.
Prediction: $2.72 million
The missed September comedy of 2010, a la Ghost Town back in 2008.
Prediction: $2.27 million
Another film that was made on the cheap which should deliver on DVD and residual sales.
Prediction: $2 million
Does this mean Will Ferrell is back? Or kind of back?
Prediction: $1.77 million

How say you? Bold enough to call The Town in the teens or above $30m? See a different winner? Which film are you the most interested to see? Comment early, comment often!

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