Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 13 – Aug. 15, 2010

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It’s been a while since the streak was in jeopardy but it certainly is this weekend. It comes down to Internet noise versus real life ticket buyers. The Expendables is louder online, but rated R action always has a tough time. Eat Pray Love is Oprah blessed and a bestseller, but how many people does that translate to? Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 8 Weeks In A Row
Right now ComingSoon.net, BoxOfficeGuru, and BoxOfficeMojo’s online prediction contest all have The Expendables taking the weekend. So I’m zigging where they zagged, based solely on the unpredictability of the female demographic and arriving at anything nearing accuracy.

My comps for this title are Mamma Mia! and Erin Brockovich. It should do slightly better than Streep’s musical because singing and dancing aren’t for everyone. It should equal Brockovich, though adjusted for inflation.

Where will this prediction go wrong? If Eat Pray Love‘s 140 minute running time gets me … or if it’s another Julie & Julia. However, as of yesterday at 1 PM, Eat Pray Love was outselling The Expendables at Fandango three-to-one… that’s at least a small feather in my cap.

Prediction: $37.9 million

I just don’t think there are enough adult action fans left. You look at Rambo‘s numbers, you look at Death Race (another August Statham release) and the precedent isn’t there. Plus, what date night is headed out to The Expendables?
Prediction: $24.9 million
How does the group feel about a 46 percent dip this weekend?
Prediction: $19.14 million
This feels like Serenity to me. A film that desperately needs to be seen, but won’t generate enough initial interest.
Prediction: $18.62 million
Five weekends in a row in double digits. We’ll take it.
Prediction: $11.82 million
Somehow, even with that slim $30m budget, it might lose money.
Prediction: $7.79 million
7. Salt
They’d have been fine if they hadn’t spent $110m making this beauty, though it will pass the $100 million mark this weekend and is expected to make another $100 million overseas.
Prediction: $5.59 million
It’s gaining 42 theaters this weekend? How is that even possible?
Prediction: $5.1 million
$250m on a $70m budget as we close the books on Despicable Me and its last weekend in the top ten.
Prediction: $4.96 million
This might be the worst sequel idea of the year. And that’s really saying something.
Prediction: $3.17 million

How say you? Want to take The Expendables? Feeling my Eat Pray Love call? What about that plucky underdog Scott Pilgrim vs. The World? It’s in your hands commenters, get out your calculators.

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