The box office was down from this time last year; it was also the weakest weekend we’ve had since early June. Comedy looks to be what’s needed while 3-D is being actively avoided. Plus, a surprise guest in the #10 spot. Let’s break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 8 Weeks In A Row
It’s looks as though alert commenter Feedback had the best call on the board, but many were close on this title. No production budget has been listed, but I think Step Brothers coming in at $65m and Talladega Nights being delivered at $72m gives us a pretty good indication. If it’s around there, The Other Guys will need $150m or so worldwide to bank. A $35.6m opening indicates somewhere around $110m in domestic ticket sales, and the Ferrell brand doesn’t travel well overseas. Probably because comedy is so specific to culture. As such, even with the weekend’s win this might still be a financial loser, needing residual and DVD sales to push it over the top.
Result: $35.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $30.6 million was $5m off for a percentage error of 14.04%.
2. Inception
It’s cracked $400m in worldwide cume after putting up bleeds of 32, 36, and 32 percent. The people have spoken, they are definitely interested in what Inception is selling.
Result: $18.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $17.754 million, which is $0.846m off for a 4.55% error.
3. Step Up 3D
This is a poor result given the numbers we talked about on Thursday. Less than two million tickets sold, making imaRinger’s $15.3m call sparkly. I think the younger generations are far more likely to turn against 3-D. They have less discretionary income and way more things to do. Good thing the budget was probably minimal, as filming dancing doesn’t cost much.
Result: $15.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $20.28 million, which is $4.78m off for a 30.84% error.
4. Salt
The new trailers here are just silly, quoting Ebert and RollingStone. I don’t know why those guys gave fawning reviews, but you don’t need to spend your money on this.
Result: $11.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $11.683 million, which is $0.583m off for a 5.25% error.
Only Charlie St. Cloud dropped faster than this one. And that’s due to massive demo frontloading, Schmucks getting crushed by Other Guys is a clear call on quality.
Result: $10.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $11.292 million, which is $0.792m off for a 7.54% error.
The budget was only $70m and they are above $250m in worldwide cume. Looks like the good guys win this one.
Result: $9.4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $10.29 million, which is $0.89m off for a 9.47% error.
7. Cats and Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore
The budget here was $85m. That can’t be good.
Result: $6.9 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $7.367 million, which is $0.467m off for a 6.77% error.
A 62 percent drop. As we said when we were in Cannes, that’s a definite non bon scenario.
Result: $4.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.699 million, which is $0.999m off for a 21.26% error.
9. Toy Story 3
It will hit $900m in worldwide cume. Now if only we could get Pixar to fix our political situation.
Result: $3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.711 million, which is $0.289m off for a 9.63% error.
Boom, The Kids are All Right slipped into the tenth slot like a thief in the night. I’m pleased. It’s a nice little drama.
Result: $2.6 million
My rank: Not Ranked
How say you? Any surprises? Happy to see Step Up 3-D fail, even though it wasn’t post-production 3-D? Am I off on my take on The Other Guys‘ financials? Weigh in now, before it’s too late!
