Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 6 – Aug. 8, 2010

What looked like a tough weekend a month ago has shaped up to be a pretty easy call. Domestic audiences want comedy, and they’ll give Ferrell a shot, at least for opening weekend. Step Up 3-D doesn’t have enough theaters to mount a serious charge and Inception is spent after three weekends on top. So it’s The Other Guys weekend to lose … and they won’t.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 7 Weeks In A Row
I liked it, laughed quite a bit, and there’s some quotable fun here too. It’s everything Cop Out should have been, a silly take on the buddy cop genre. Ferrell is always better when he’s playing it mostly straight, and Wahlberg has always had nice comic timing (See: Huckabees, I Heart)

That said, they might not win the per theater average crown as the film isn’t in 3-D. This opening number will look a lot like Step Brothers, Blades of Glory, and Anchorman. If anything this number is probably low as $35m is within reach if the Friday night crowd thinks highly of the product.

Can it hit Talladega Nights $47m opening? No, not a chance, try again next time.

Prediction: $30.6 million

Consider This:

  • Step Up: $20.7m
  • Step up 2: $18.9m

Looking at those opening weekend numbers you’d say “Well, the franchise is tailing off, I’ll go real low.” I say “Nay.” The 18 percent 3-D surcharge will help and that Step Up 2 number came in February. So the franchise is sort of tailing off, but will be helped by the summer and 3-D dollars. Respect.

Prediction: $20.28 million
I’d like it to win again, but the math isn’t there unless the top two titles really falter. Inception probably needs around $500m to get a “bingo” for profit, so they’ve still got some work to do.
Prediction: $17.754 million
4. Salt
Dropping it 40 percent. Just plain ol’ regression to the mean.
Prediction: $11.683 million
Did any of y’all see it? Do you want to vent? You’re in a safe place.
Prediction: $11.292 million
Hey, six films in double digits! But without a beast at the top the weekend will look pretty weak overall.
Prediction: $10.29 million
See you in ten years for Cats and Dogs 3?
Prediction: $7.367 million
The budget is listed at $44m … which is too much.
Prediction: $5.699 million
What will the final worldwide number be here? $850m?
Prediction: $2.711 million
I would suggest an unrated DVD. Just go all out.
Prediction: $2.244 million

How say you? The Kids Are All Right gonna make a charge at the ten spot? You feel like Step Up 3 will falter? Am I too bearing on The Other Guys? Commment bomb me!

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