The nicest predictions of the weekend go to TS and The Check Spot, who had Inception winning and were within $1m. The tastefully named Chuck Bartowski had a great Inception dollar call … but he also had it in second place. But enough commenter recognition, let’s break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 6 Weeks In A Row
I haven’t seen the production budget yet, but this will come down to how much they spent. I don’t expect a great holdover next weekend, even against light competition, so they could be in trouble if they weren’t efficient here.
Result: $36.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $39.73 million, which is $3.23m off for a 8.85% error.
Three films fell in the 20 percent range, this was one of them. The $70m production budget listed here means they are set up for success.
Result: $24.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $21.92 million, which is $2.18m off for a 9.05% error.
At this point Disney has to be saying “Well, at least we’ve got Toy Story 3 going for us.”
Result: $9.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.45 million, which is $1.15m off for a 11.98% error.
5. Toy Story 3
2009 only had two films open above $100m – Transformers 2 and New Moon. This year? We’ve already got three in with Toy Story 3, Alice in Wonderland, and Iron Man 2. So maybe things aren’t so bad after all!
Result: $9 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.73 million, which is $2.27m off for a 25.22% error.
Yikes. I overrated this on a massive scale. I never saw any marketing, but I assumed it was happening on the channels I wasn’t watching. Clearly this assumption was incorrect. Fox remains the only major studio without a $100m movie this year domestically. Date Night came closest so far with $98 million.
Result: $8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $19.58 million, which is $11.58m off for a 144.75% error.
7. Grown Ups
No international dollars yet. Will non-domestic audiences dig Sandler and company?
Result: $7.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $6.45 million, which is $1.15m off for a 15.13% error.
New Moon hit $700m worldwide, this hasn’t hit $600m worldwide just yet. So unless they’ve still got international receipts coming in I don’t see the franchise growing.
Result: $7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.76 million, which is $1.24m off for a 17.71% error.
The cost was just too high. Who thought a $150m production budget was a good idea?
Result: $4.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $3.23 million, which is $0.87m off for a 21.22% error.
$24m / $7m / $3m and then right outta theaters. Impressive work.
Result: $2.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $1.94 million, which is $0.86m off for a 30.71% error.
Any surprises? Something like 75 percent of us had Inception beating Salt, so this one played out as expected. Beezus got torched, which many of you had dialed in too. Time to turn it over to you, able audience, make us proud.