Box-Office Oracle: Jun. 18 – Jun. 20, 2010

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Last weekend I made a mistake. I had Karate Kid winning the weekend on my initial predictions, and then I bowed to public opinion and slipped The A-Team slightly in front. The results were disastrous, as the weekend played out with The Karate Kid handily crushing The A-Team. The lesson? Stick with your first call … and respect the family dollar, for it rules us all.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
See? This is my new “not bowing to public sentiment” method. Toy Story 3 is going to make all kinds of moolah this weekend, but not a record-breaking amount. First, the good news: 3-D prices and all the kids finally on summer break will launch this into the stratosphere. It will be the fifth largest opening in history, narrowly surpassing Iron Man 2‘s effort earlier in the year.

The historical perspective? Toy Story 2 opened at $17k per theater in 1999. The past dozen years have done nothing to hurt Pixar’s reputation, and now they are set to cash in. I’ve got this one at $32k per theater.

But no, I can’t see it cracking The Dark Knight‘s $158m. It doesn’t have enough crossover appeal with teens, and it has far more in common with a film like Kung Fu Panda where box office draw is concerned.

Massive? Yes. Record breaking? Yes again, but only June’s opening weekend record and the all-time animation record will fall.

Prediction: $128.9 million

A 40 percent drop for The Karate Kid. That’s nothing to be ashamed of, and the sequel is already at the scripting stage.
Prediction: $33.4 million
The other opener of the weekend, it feels like $6,500 per theater to me.
Prediction: $18.36 million
It’ll fall 44 percent this weekend. Really, this film was well positioned right up until they decided to spend $110m on it. It’s tough to make your money back like that. Of course, a lot of that is due to the film being in development hell and going through 11 screenwriters so at what point does the final product separate itself from the years it took to get it made?
Prediction: $14.41 million
Nine years ago the original made more domestically. So in North America it’s a dud. The international dollars should push it to profit though.
Prediction: $7.7 million
The same issue as A-Team. They continue to spend too much money up front.
Prediction: $5.9 million
Someone asked which was a bigger disaster, this or Robin Hood. Both will end up with around $300m in ticket sales on $200m production budgets. So, depending on the splits, they are pretty equitable disasters.
Prediction: $4.03 million
Killers should be all set to lose around $30 million for Lionsgate. Nice.
Prediction: $2.63 million
See #8, but with Fox inserted instead.
Prediction: $2.3 million
I expect a big DVD push here, because that’s where all the profit is going to be had.
Prediction: $1.94 million

How say you? Want to call $160m for Toy Story 3? Or perhaps you want to naysay a bit with a call under $100m? Feel like my Jonah Hex number is all wrong? Comment away!

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