This weekend in May was more than $20m lighter than the same time period last year, due to Night at the Museum and Terminator sequels combining t0 outperform Shrek Forever After.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 12 Weeks In A Row
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| Tenorclef and CineJAB were both around $4m off, kudos to them. The franchise is now clearly trending the wrong way after Shrek 3‘s massive second weekend drop-off and this opening result, far worse than any of the sequels.
Still, it’s not all bad news. The budget is listed at $165m and the domestic haul for this one could be $200m. Add on what should be a generous international total and Paramount Dreamworks should have a modest financial gainer on their hands. Will we see a Shrek 5? You’d have to be against at this point. You’d also have to think the bleed here won’t look like Shrek 3‘s total — because it is starting so much lower.
Result: $71.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $87.18 million was $15.98m off for a percentage error of 22.44%. |
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2. Iron Man 2
This was a bingo, no doubt about it. Many of us were damned close, the groupthink was pretty clear, though I don’t think anyone hit it exactly. Iron Man 2 crossed the $500m worldwide cume this weekend, not too shabby.
Result: $26.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $26.54 million, which is $0.06m off for a 0.23% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $26.54 million, which is $0.06m off for a 0.23% error.
3. Robin Hood
Not a terrible drop, but not the 30 percent or so they needed. Still well on track to lose money.
Result: $18.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $17.14 million, which is $1.56m off for a 8.34% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $17.14 million, which is $1.56m off for a 8.34% error.
Only Date Night held over better. The female contingent is clearly hungry for programming.
Result: $9.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $7.19 million, which is $1.91m off for a 20.99% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $7.19 million, which is $1.91m off for a 20.99% error.
5. Just Wright
I asked it to drop 49 percent, and it did so nicely.
Result: $4.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $4.23 million, which is $0.03m off for a 0.71% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $4.23 million, which is $0.03m off for a 0.71% error.
6. MacGruber
Nothing like being 400 percent wrong. This total means that less than half a million people wanted to see MacGruber. You can kiss SNL movie funding goodbye for a bit.
Result: $4.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $20.36 million, which is $16.26m off for a 396.59% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $20.36 million, which is $16.26m off for a 396.59% error.
7. Date Night
$141m on a budget of $55m might just work, depending on how much marketing they threw behind it.
Result: $2.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $2.34 million, which is $0.46m off for a 16.43% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $2.34 million, which is $0.46m off for a 16.43% error.
$76m on a budget of $35m isn’t working yet … but it’s not a disaster either.
Result: $2.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.09 million, which is $0.11m off for a 5% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.09 million, which is $0.11m off for a 5% error.
Paramount finally killed their own product, this was a 26 percent higher drop than any previous How to Train Your Dragon result.
Result: $1.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $2.85 million, which is $1.05m off for a 58.33% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $2.85 million, which is $1.05m off for a 58.33% error.
How say you? Surprised by the MacGruber disaster? Willing to give up on the Shrek franchise? Any other comments you’d like to toss into the mix? Comment away, now and forever!
