Box-Office Oracle: Apr. 9 – Apr. 11, 2010

This feels like an ambush. On one hand, Date Night is an April release with a limited romantic comedy demographic. On the other hand, Clash of the Titans hasn’t received exactly glowing word-of-mouth. It’s a real pickle. If I had a third hand I’d mention I hadn’t even heard of the tenth place film until I started writing this article. But I don’t have a third hand. So we’ll keep that last part quiet.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 5 Weeks In A Row
It will fall 55 percent, which isn’t a very good result given the $125m production budget. Clash of the Titans needs another $200m or so to start thinking about a profit. It looks as though people have avoided the 3-D, or at least not championed it, which has to be causing a few panicked meetings around Hollywood.

Personally, and this is an odd position to be in, I seem to have liked the film more than the average person. For a critic, that’s rare, we’re usually advocating films no one has heard of or crushing films everyone is seeing. So why did I enjoy Clash? I suppose it has something to do with not knowing anything about the film going in. It felt like a pure actioner to me, no real plot, but it didn’t seem like anything was missing either.

Anyway, I’m taking it to win… but I’m guessing plenty of y’all are lining up to pick against me.

Prediction: $27.74 million

What will you pick instead? Date Night! This movie is another perfectly fine film, not a “must-see” but not actively offensive either. But financially speaking I can’t project it above $7845 per theater, which is $1000 better per than Bounty Hunter and Baby Mama. That’s the most I can give it. Will it be too low?
Prediction: $26.47 million
It fell 33.7 percent last week, I think it keeps trending positively with a 27.5 percent drop. Solid reviews, a family demographic, and no competition means they’ll do well this weekend.
Prediction: $21.03 million
I have three films dropping 55 percent due to front-loading. This is one of them.
Prediction: $13.18 million
And this is the other. I see nothing that makes me think this film will bounce back this weekend.
Prediction: $7.21 million
If you can figure out where they spent the nearly $40m on this project you’re doing better than me. How much do hot tubs cost, anyway?
Prediction: $4.75 million
The smartest move here was being the first 3-D film out of the gate in 2010.
Prediction: $3.66 million
Another $40m budget debacle, but at least they’ve almost hit $70m in worldwide cume.
Prediction: $3.4 million
Just keeps hanging around, like Matt Damon in Rounders.
Prediction: $2.75 million
It should bring in the church crowd, or around $2500 per screen.
Prediction: $2.24 million

That’s all I’ve got. How say you? How many of you will put your chips on Steve Carell and Tina Fey? It wouldn’t be a bad bet, I just couldn’t make the math work. Now it’s in your court, comment away!

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