Box-Office Oracle: Apr. 2 – Apr. 4, 2010

ON
Spring break! I’m predicting a very big weekend, something nearing $187m for the top twelve titles. Three well placed releases, two targeting specific demographics, and one strong holdover give the top four films strength. Should be interesting, and if I miss it’s going to be by a large margin at the top. But nothing risked, nothing gained.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 4 Weeks In A Row
Correction: Adjusted for inflation, this one cumed $100 million dollars back in 1981, so yes, I’m far more bullish here.

I’m not sure why it’s getting a critical lashing, it’s a fun little film, and the 3-D dollars will help the bottom line quite a bit. On that subject, I will say that you’d be better off paying the lesser amount for a 2-D screening, the post-production 3-D employed here is largely underwhelming.

This film should do well among a cross section of males, with a smidge of date night dollars sprinkled in for good measure.

Prediction: $83.09 million

They brought in a new team in the summer of 2008 to try and “fix” the entire film. I think the effort paid off, artistically, but things aren’t looking so great financially.
Prediction: $26.24 million
It will do a little worse than the first version, per theater. But better overall, due to theater counts. Question for the group: Will Tyler Perry fatigue set in any time soon?
Prediction: $21.55 million
It had a $5m opening Wednesday, a significant result. I look for the teen girl demographic to support this in a big way.
Prediction: $21.38 million
A massive drop from four to five, and then another one later on in the countdown. It’s a weekend of cliffs.
Prediction: $8.81 million
The budget was only $36m, but this didn’t do very well opening weekend. Right now they are well short of a profit.
Prediction: $7.76 million
Bounty Hunter is a little better off than Hot Tub Time Machine, but it’s still looking like a tax write-off.
Prediction: $7.47 million
Anyone else around here looking forward to projecting summer movies? Bring on the big totals.
Prediction: $4.85 million
Same story as many of the titles on the board. Depending on the studio/theater split, it still has a lot of work to do… and seemingly no momentum or time to do it.
Prediction: $1.95 million
Massacred. $12m in box office on a $32m budget. They better hope they sell a ton of Repo Men lunch boxes.
Prediction: $1.64 million

How say you? Predictions on Clash of the Titans were all over the place last Sunday, are we more focused now? Any thoughts on Miley Cyrus or Tyler Perry? Weigh in now, as always your input is valued and considered.

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