This isn’t going to be an overly long update since I already discussed some of the questions swimming around in my mind on Monday. Speaking of Monday, how about all of the passion surrounding my “Is 27 Years Without An Oscar too Many to Deny Meryl Streep in 2010?” article. I expected a little bit of chatter, but over 100 comments wasn’t on my radar, and for the most part these aren’t comments screaming, “Go Meryl!” there are actually quite a few well thought out comments (even if some of the arguments do get a bit loony). That said, why don’t we start with the Best Actress category? Actress and Best Picture are really the only categories worth talking at any length on any way.
Last week Meryl Streep stood atop my prediction chart and this week Sandra Bullock moves ahead of her. I know this will bring out the Meryl Streep boo birds screaming “it is her time” but if there was any large online contingency for Carey Mulligan, Gabourey Sidibe or even the entirely ignored Charlotte Gainsbourg they too would be shouting from the rooftops. It’s beginning to look like a Bullock win is inevitable. She’s the woman of the moment and I have pretty much come to terms with that.
However, speaking of Bullock, I was “blind sided” last night as a fellow critic here in Seattle said, without any hesitation or question, that The Blind Side would be nominated for Best Picture. We even made a friendly $10 wager (yes, my life is that exciting) as I said there was no way that would happen. I’ve never even contemplated adding it to my list of Best Picture contenders, a list that is now 21 films deep. Am I the crazy one here? Does The Blind Side stand a chance of being one of the ten?
As for the rest of the field, yes, my #1 slot has changed yet again. Like Kentucky losing to South Carolina last night (college basketball for those of you that don’t know), the Producers Guild win for The Hurt Locker has propelled it back into the #1 slot and I have also moved Inglourious Basterds into my #2 slot following the Screen Actors Guild ensemble win. I see a slow build of momentum for Basterds that would not make a Best Picture win for the film much of a surprise for me any longer and I see the last breath for Avatar in the hands of the Director’s Guild as they prepare to name their Best Director on Saturday, January 30. Should Bigelow take that award there is no stopping The Hurt Locker and it will take both Director and Picture at the Oscars, however, a win for Cameron will keep things interesting.
Tom O’Neil at Gold Derby has already started taking the DGA temperature, polling 27 pundits thus far (myself included) and things have been divided into the two most likely camps. Right now there are eight votes for a James Cameron win and 19 for Bigelow. You can browse the picks right here.
So that’s where I will leave it as my Best Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Actor categories haven’t changed outside of a couple of below-the-line movements. You can check out the complete charts by visiting The Contenders or clicking on any one of the following links to get started. Each opens in a new window so just close the window to return to this post.
Stay tuned as this weekend will bring the Director’s Guild winner on Saturday and then on Tuesday, February 2 the Oscar nominations will be announced as Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences President Tom Sherak and Oscar-nominated actress and Academy member Anne Hathaway will be the ones announcing the nominees at a 5:30 a.m. news conference. Yeah, that’s one of those mornings where I never even go to sleep. Hope you’re here with me.
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