Chances are that this is the weekend my streak comes to an end. None of the movies have any buzz, it’s a holiday, and everyone is getting ready to head back to school. I should note that these are three day predictions – Labor Day Monday isn’t included.
All About Steve looks completely terrible, but they only need two million people buying tickets to hit this number. That’s one out of every 150 Americans. You probably don’t even know one of them. I think it will do just well enough to triumph.
The third edition fell 47.5 percent. So I’m putting this one down for a similar result. Will the 3-D make it fall even more? My crystal ball is cloudy, but you can be sure I’ll learn a valuable lesson either way.
They’ve been advertising heavily within the demographic, but it looks pretty bad. Sadly they aren’t screening it, so I have no way of knowing officially. But I can’t imagine a cross between Running Man and Death Race is going to be huge.
When the dust settles only Pearl Harbor and Saving Private Ryan will be higher grossing “World War II” films. Of course… this really isn’t about World War II so much as it’s about the timeless concept of revenge. $140m worldwide cume on a $70m budget, they still have some work to do, but it’s getting solid recommendations.
On paper, it’s a film I want to champion. But 1,611 theaters isn’t enough. The film isn’t good enough. It all adds up to another financial disappointment for a guy I really like, Mike Judge.
If my projections hold it will be the worst weekend since March. I’m only dipping Halloween 2 56 percent because it opened so softly. Mathematically there’s only so far it can fall.
Sony has had kind of a rough year. The hits were Angels & Demons and Paul Blart – neither of which you can feel too good about. The flat out misses were Pelham, The International and Year One.
I’ll just throw something out there Sony, and if you don’t like it you can throw it right back. I’ll run your studio for you. I’ll only fund things that I know will bank, and if I whiff it will be with a film that actually might win an award. That’s my pledge to you, Sony stockholders, now write my name in on the ballot the next time you get the chance.
Warner Bros. has done much better. Harry Potter banked. The Hangover was hugely profitable. And did you know that He’s Just Not That Into You ended up at $172m worldwide cume? I don’t know what the budget was, but it couldn’t have been north of $50m. So we’ll call that a win too.
Estimate: $4.1 million
What are your weekend calls? I think four films could legitimately win the weekend, so no prediction is too crazy. Gimme your best shot, Oracle glory awaits you.
