Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jul. 3 – Jul. 5, 2009

I’m not sure whether to count this weekend as a win or a loss. On one hand I completely overrated Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs. On the other hand I completely nailed my Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen‘s 61 percent drop. Should I call it a draw?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
Well, we all had this title over $50m, so it looks like a slight miss. Still, it’s at $215m worldwide on a reported $90m production budget so they’re probably not too upset over at 20th Century Fox.
Result: 42.5 million (My rank: #1, $13.4m off)
Revenge of the Fallen grabbed the top spot for the year, nearing $600m worldwide. But let me tell you about another film that dropped 61 percent on its second weekend… Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever. Oh, and also Glitter, starring Mariah Carey. The defense rests.
Result: 42.5 million (My rank: #2, $0m off)
I went too low. However, I was pleased to see it open above Miami Vice, if only to provide Michael Mann a roadmap going forward.
Result: 26.1 million (My rank: #3, $2.9m off)
It cracked triple digits (worldwide) this weekend. Could we be in for The Proposal II – but this time he visits her dead family?
Result: 12.7 million (My rank: #4, $1.4m off)
Raichu was closest here with a $10.6m prediction. The Hangover could theoretically hit $300m, it’s at $265m worldwide. I would bet against it, but pretty amazing that it even has a chance.
Result: 10.4 million (My rank: #5, $0.3m off)
6. Up
Y’all were right, I was wrong. I had it way too low.
Result: 6.5 million (My rank: #7, $2.0m off)
The budget was only $30m. But they are going to have a hell of a time reaching anything nearing a profit as the title is already fading fast.
Result: 5.2 million (My rank: #6, $1.6m off)
Yamato, Nick, and Sebastian were all far more dialed in on this film than I. Those 1100 theaters it lost must not have been in busy areas.
Result: 2.5 million (My rank: #10, $1.0m off)
Cera and Black have yet to heed my door-to-door selling advice so it’s hard to drum up much sympathy.
Result: 2.1 million (My rank: #9, $0.1m off)
Star Trek fell out of the top ten. Shame.
Result: 2.1 million (My rank: Not Ranked)

Any early calls on next weekend? Borat opened at $26m in 2006. If Bruno matches that it just might be enough. Let me hear it.