Oscar Predictions: Adapted and Original Screenplay

Photo: AMPAS

Since I don’t plan on doing an Oscar prediction article for the top five categories this week I thought it would be best to take a look at the rest of the categories on a daily basis until next Thursday, February 19 when I will predict all of the categories and include polls for you to vote on each as well. If you would like to take a look at my last set of predictions for Picture, Actor, Actress, Director and the Supporting categories click here, but for now let’s take a look at the Screenplay categories. The nominees please…

Adapted screenplay
  • Eric Roth & Robin Swicord (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
  • John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)
  • Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon)
  • David Hare (The Reader)
  • Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)
Original screenplay
  • Courtney Hunt (Frozen River)
  • Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky)
  • Martin McDonagh (In Bruges)
  • Dustin Lance Black (Milk)
  • Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon (WALL•E)

First for the Adapted Screenplay category I don’t think there is any question Simon Beaufoy’s Slumdog Millionaire script is going to win. It won at the BAFTAs, WGA and Golden Globes and seems to be the obvious choice. If anything were to knock it off the top spot I would say it would be Shanley’s script for Doubt, but that film seems to only be gaining attention for its acting and not much else. Eric Roth’s Benjamin Button script has come under too much scrutiny for it to be considered a contender any longer, with comparisons to Forrest Gump as well as some people questioning it’s source material.

As for Original Screenplay my early money is on Milk by Dustin Lance Black just because it is Academy material, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see either WALL•E or In Bruges creep in and take it. If I had to choose between the bunch I would certainly go with In Bruges simply because it relies on its script and the dialogue that is written more than any of the other contenders. Milk has its politics and WALL•E has plenty more to entertain viewers.

I think Courtney Hunt’s film would have been much better if the script had the words “the baby died” and Mike Leigh’s script, while it is certainly top quality, the film on a whole doesn’t seem to be resonating with voters, which was obvious when Sally Hawkins didn’t receive a nomination.

While I am sure many would love to complain about the absence of some scripts from the list of nominees, let’s stick to those in the field — what do you think? Am I on the money with Slumdog and Milk or do you foresee a different future? Weigh in below!

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