With just over three weeks to go before the 2009 Oscars on February 22 it is time to begin doing a little Oscar prognosticating for the top six categories and I will have three more installments published every Thursday leading up to Oscar night. Of course, the last installment will feature polls where you can vote on ALL of the categories, but for now let’s keep it to the top six since there is enough to talk about here as I don’t think these are all as cut and dry as it may seem… Well, at least half of the categories don’t seem all that cut and dry.
As far as Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor go I think we have relative locks in Sean Penn, Kate Winslet and Heath Ledger. At this point it would surprise me if the Oscar wins went to anyone else based on what we have seen so far.
However, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress and even Best Picture don’t seem to be as locked down in my mind. Sure, we have frontrunners, but the Academy is a screwy bunch and there are a few things to consider.
The Globes and SAGs both gave this category to Winslet, but for most of the year Penelope Cruz’s performance in Vicky Cristina Barcelona was the favorite to win. With Winslet out of the way does that now pave the way for Cruz or has Winslet’s departure and early award wins opened the door for all five actresses in contention? My guess is for the latter and as a result it moves an actress I had just missing the nominee cut throughout all of my predictions moving into the #1 slot.
Although The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has been receiving mediocre responses from most Oscar prognosticators and critics there is one name that always rises to the top: Taraji P. Henson. No matter what people have to say about the movie Taraji has been getting high marks from everyone. Considering the mortal locks in the three other acting categories this is the one category the Academy can separate themselves from the other award shows and I really think we are looking at a close race between Henson and Davis and unless things change along the way, Henson is my pick.
Next we come to Best Director. Most will have Danny Boyle in this category, but when it comes to direction I don’t think Slumdog compares to Benjamin Button. Of course, I am someone that loves Benjamin Button and simply thought Slumdog Millionaire was a cute little film with a cliche ending, but nothing worthy of awards. Maybe you say Ben Button is pretentious and overblown. Fine, but isn’t that right in the Academy’s wheelhouse? But would that be too obvious?
While I still have Slumdog as my top pick for Picture there was something A.O. Scott said in his comments on the Charlie Rose Show that has me thinking: “I think the Oscars are an odd phenomena because what they’re really about is not the best movies of a given year, but the American film industry’s image of itself.” Both he and the New Yorker’s David Denby believe Milk is the frontrunner for Picture and why not, after all the Academy did snub the gay-themed Brokeback Mountain and seem to be embracing Milk. Perhaps Milk will be the Academy’s way of making up for Brokeback? Not sure what the difference is, but it’s a theory that’s impossible to deny.
So that’s the reasoning behind the charts you will find on the next page. You will notice there has been some up-and-down movement that doesn’t mesh with my final predictions before the nominees were announced, but that’s because after the nominee announcement I did update the predictions in my “The Contenders” section and the movement is based on those very early predictions.
Since this is the first round of predictions since the nominees were announced one week ago I hope you have plenty of comments to bring to the table. Change my mind. Tell me where you think I am wrong. Convince me! I want to be convinced!
Click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and
