We have just over a day until the 2009 Oscar nominees are announced and depending on when you are reading this maybe even less or they have already been announced. My latest updates have only one change in terms of the top five in any of the eight categories I am predicting, but there is a lot of action in the ranks of 6-10 as those bubble contenders are nipping at the heels of the leaders. On top of that, I cannot begin to tell you how much films such as Milk and Frost/Nixon worry me. These are two films everyone seems to be taking for granted and in the case of Frost/Nixon it seems Frank Langella, Ron Howard, the script by Peter Morgan and the film itself were penciled in before anyone even saw the film. Is it really an Oscar caliber production? Personally I don’t think so, but I have to go with what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.
Then there’s Milk, a solid production that many enjoyed and Sean Penn instantly became an Oscar frontrunner and the film, the script and director Gus Van Sant became contenders. However, that’s about all we have heard from the film. People have written it in and I can’t help but get that Dreamgirls vibe all over again. Of course, the difference here being the fact Dreamgirls won at the Golden Globes and ultimately missed out on an Oscar nomination, while Milk wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture at the Golden Globes.
Between these two films I predict an upset or two somewhere, but as you will soon see from my predictions I have no idea where. Guessing, I would say one (if not both) will not receive a Best Picture nomination. Frost/Nixon will probably be the one that gets the nudge, but what replaces it? The Reader has generated some attention recently with a BAFTA nomination, a group that ultimately slighted The Dark Knight as well, but as it stands I have more confidence in Batman getting an Oscar nod for Best Picture than I do Frost/Nixon — call it a gut feeling. Then there’s Revolutionary Road, a film the Academy can shock everyone by embracing. You will see I still have Leonardo DiCaprio just missing out on a Best Actor nomination, but Kate Winslet’s double Golden Globe win has people reeling. As a matter of fact everyone thinks Winslet is now a lock for nominations and even wins, but to the idea of her winning I think folks need to slow down… more on that in a second.
We also have films such as The Wrestler and Doubt in the Best Picture category. Of the two I am now thinking The Wrestler has the better chance with Doubt receiving more acclaim for the acting than the film itself. Finally we have WALL•E, which is a long shot for a nomination, but it is nice to still be talking about it.
The Wrestler could be a dark horse nominee that will surprise many, but excite at the same time. As a matter of fact I just moved Mickey Rourke into the #1 slot in the Best Actor category, moving Sean Penn down to #2. What put Rourke back in the #1 spot for me was his speech at the Golden Globes, something that energized the crowd and was talked about long after the show was over, just as much for Darren Aronofsky putting his middle-finger on display as for Rourke’s words. Actually, I think this is one of the reasons folks, such as Anne Hathaway, have recently lost traction. Hathaway’s acceptance speech at the BFCA Awards was cringe-worthy and something I don’t think many will want at the Oscars. Kate Winslet’s acceptance speeches have also drawn criticism as she floundered about. I enjoyed her speeches — “Gather” — showed true excitement and would be something you would want at the Oscars, especially for an actress that obviously has a LARGE fanbase. But what do I know?
The Supporting Actor category remains a tricky one for me as I still think Michael Shannon will be the last one in, nudging out Dev Patel from Slumdog Millionaire. In my mind the two performances don’t even compare as Shannon absolutely floors the audience with his limited screen presence in a performance that not only supports Revolutionary Road, but raises it when he is on screen. Patel is running in the wrong category and should be considered for Best Actor such as he was at the BAFTA’s a category he wouldn’t make the top five in either and not even the top ten. Sorry, just being honest.
The Supporting Actress category also has its own little “lead vs. supporting” conundrum as many think Winslet’s role in that film is more of a lead role than a supporting role. She was nominated at the BAFTAs as a lead actress and won at the Golden Globes as a Supporting Actress. In my mind she is most certainly a supporting character in the film as David Kross is that film’s only lead character and Winslet’s performance supports and justifies his actions just as Freida Pinto is a Supporting Actress in Slumdog Millionaire opposite Dev Patel. The Reader was Michael’s story just as Slumdog was the story of Jamal. Of course, this is where politics play a role and considering Oscar rules won’t allow for the same actor/actress to be nominated twice in the same category the Weinstein Co. had little choice but to push Winslet as Supporting for The Reader, but I think the decision is 100% justified.
However, where does that leave the Supporting Actress category? Quite frankly I am still quite confident in my top four, and for my final predictions before the Oscar nominations are announced I have kept Amy Adams in the fifth spot for her role in Doubt, which leaves Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) just on the outside. I look at this category as a major way of determining how the Academy sees the field. If Henson finds her way in for her fabulous performance I think things begin to tilt into Benjamin Button‘s direction and away from Slumdog. If my prediction of Dev Patel missing out and Brad Pitt getting in are also met things tilt even further. The Oscars are typically easy to predict as the night gets closer and closer but with the “little film that could” showing up as the frontrunner it makes things very interesting.
The one category that saw the most movement was Best Actress. Even though my top five remain the same, their positions within that top five and the five ladies that follow them have almost all changed. Meryl Streep (Doubt) remains my frontrunner as I think she will win her first Oscar in 16 years (Sophie’s Choice in 1983 was her last win) but behind her are a fleet of interesting ladies and it is nice to once again to have the women as a topic of award conversation. The one pick I see as a risk is leaving Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long) in the top five while Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo and Michelle Williams have their eyes set on that fifth slot. Jolie and Changeling are coming off eight BAFTA nominations and no major award ceremony has recognized Williams as of yet and I am not quite ready to count her out. Leo, as well, is another strong consideration as she saw some early award season consideration including a Screen Actors Guild nomination (ceremony will be held this Sunday, January 25). Hard to count her out.
In the director category, again, I see Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) and Gus Van Sant (Milk) as iffy choices and it also wouldn’t surprise me if Chris Nolan got snubbed, even though I think that would be a MAJOR snub. The likes of Darren Aronofsky, Jonathan Demme and Stephen Daldry all make worthy additions and never count out the Academy’s love for Clint Eastwood as Gran Torino has certainly made some late season waves. However, it’s hard to bet against the DGA nominees.
With all that said, welcome to Oscar Predictions 8, my final set of predictions before the nominations for the 81st Academy Awards are announced on Thursday, January 22, 2009, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater. The next time I do any predicting we will have five names for each category and we will be predicting only winners. Don’t forget, you too can do some Oscar predicting as I have polls open for just over another 24 hours right here where you can predict who you think will be nominated for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director.
So there you have it, my long drawn out explanation for the picks that follow on the next two pages. You can keep up with all my Oscar coverage in my “The Contenders” section right here.
Click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and
