#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
Why not a month straight? It’s NFL opening weekend which should hurt the actioner (Bangkok Dangerous) more than the comedy. Also, if you look at Nic Cage’s September history it isn’t pretty. Lord of War, Matchstick Men, and The Wicker Man are all September releases that didn’t hit double digits opening weekend.
Estimate: $8.4 million
Plus, do you really think I want to root for Bangkok Dangerous this weekend? Trust me, I don’t. And at this level of box office dollars it doesn’t make a difference anyway. I know Brad likes to hammer my predictions but we’re talking about seventeen people per showtime for this one. Seventeen people x seven dollars per show x nine shows per day x three days in the weekend = this box office number. So if that number jumps to 30 people all of a sudden I’m way off. When the truth of the matter is predicting what 13 people in Kansas City will do is fooltalk.
Estimate: $8.1 million
Not to say this is all dartboard work. It’s not. You can research. You can check history, trends, and you can measure the competition. But this weekend will be one of the worst box office weekends in the last five years which means that calling in The Oracle is like having Michelangelo paint your garage. We’ve all got better things to do than go to the theater this weekend.
Estimate: $5.6 million
I heard a rumor they were showing the Iron Man II: More IRON trailer before this. Okay, that’s a lie, I just wanted to make sure it finished 4th.
Estimate: $5.4 million
6. Traitor
I have no real bead on this one. Brad said is was decent. Read a few reviews that said the same. But you don’t really get a sense of buzz here.
Estimate: $3.9 million
You have to admire how hard this got crushed. I really want to thank everyone involved with its destruction.
Estimate: $2.7 million
8. Death Race
It’s the third action film on a board in its third weekend. That doesn’t bode well.
Estimate: $2.6 million
9. Mamma Mia!
Did anyone out there hit up the sing-a-long version? Wait, nevermind. That’s like asking “did anyone out there die last weekend?”
Estimate: $2.4 million
What a plucky little film this has turned out to be. They haven’t released a budget yet but at $13m grossed this one must be nearing profitability.
Estimate: $2.3 million
