The Locks: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) and Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly )
Oddly enough, I don’t believe the director category is anywhere near as complex as the Best Picture one. Part of this is because I think some things go hand-in-hand. For example, even if Juno is nominated Best Picture, I don’t believe Jason Reitman would be nominated Best Director. I don’t have a real problem with this either. The way I see it, if you nominate a film Best Picture, it has to be on the strength of either a nominated screenplay and/or a nominated director. A movie nominated for Best Picture but not for at least a screenplay or director makes no sense to me. If the Academy wants to argue that the Juno‘s strength is the acting and screenplay and that all the director had to do was not screw it up … fine. I’m not saying this was the case (in fact Jason Reitman probably isn’t getting enough credit), but I at least accept that argument.
Meanwhile, a movie like The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is great mainly because of its directing approach. That’s undeniable. Obviously, the screenplay had to put the director in that spot but easier said than done, I say. The screenplay is very good, but I wouldn’t raise hell if it wasn’t nominated.
So, assuming I’m right and Juno gets nominated Best Picture (and I’m less sure of this every day it makes more money … call it the Norbit effect), Jason Reitman’s absence would make room for a guy like Julian Schnabel to land a director’s nod and this is just part of the reason why I think he’s a lock.
I can’t believe Ridley Scott and Tim Burton, two guys I thought had a good chance at finally getting their due this year aren’t likely nominees. It’s kind of shocking compared to what everyone was thinking two months ago.
I wasn’t sure how much of a contender Tony Gilroy was until he was nominated by the DGA last week. Here’s my problem: I’m really kinda feeling the Sean Penn nomination for Into the Wild. The Academy loves the guy. And Michael Clayton is the only other movie of my Best Picture nominees I can see where the director gets screwed (making way for Mr. Penn).
Now I’m in this tight spot probably because I’m dead wrong about Atonement getting a Best Picture nom. Perhaps Into The Wild just takes up its spot. See, if Atonement does get nominated, I don’t see how it doesn’t land a Best Director nod as well. It’s just that type of movie. That would make Tony Gilroy the next Jason Reitman because you could make the case that the strength of that movie was the screenplay and acting as well. Again, not saying I agree (Gilroy’s subdued style is what makes the ending so explosive) but I can see it happening.
But maybe I really am just being stubborn when it comes to Atonement. Maybe Joe Wright is kaput. And maybe that’s why I should hedge my bets!
The 2007 nominees for Best Director will be:
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Spoilers that give me the most pause: Joe Wright, Atonement and Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
And there you have your Director and Picture nominees. I’ll be delving into the acting categories soon. Keep it here at Rope of Silicon for the battle-tested prognostications so you can clean up at your office pools.
