Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 16 – Nov. 18, 2007

#1 movie predicted correctly: Zero Weeks in a Row
You’ve got to like Beowulf‘s chances this weekend as it has no real competition. If it clears $9000 per screen it will hit this number. They’ve marketed this very well, turning an old school (very old school) narrative into something that looks “hep.” Kudos to them. If only the film was better than average.
Estimate: $28.3 million
It crept up last weekend and took the top slot. I see another slow burn for this weekend with only a 38% drop. Why? Well, this is a very vanilla movie, safe for everyone, and since nothing else is really out why not see this? That’s the rationale around these parts, not that I condone it.
Estimate: $16.0 million
I really would like you to see this instead of Bee Movie but I’m guessing you’ve got a wife and kids, just like the rest of our demographic. What’s that? You’re a 14 year-old girl? Well then sneak in to this silly pants, just don’t buy a ticket for Bee Movie to do it and we’re square.
Estimate: $14.1 million
This doesn’t have any buzz behind it and thus I can only grant it near $4000 per screen. It really doesn’t have a bottom given the stiff kid’s competition (Claus and Bee) so it could free fall this weekend.
Estimate: $12.6 million
I’ve got to think Fred Claus bleeds over half this weekend, it’s waaaay too crappy not to. The only thing working against me is that this is the perfect holiday film – it’s got the marketing pedigree and the proper holiday-ish title. So then, its crappiness will hurt… but its name recognition will help.
Estimate: $9.1 million
Dan in Real Life is holding on to theatres like a champ. Respect. Let’s agree that it will drop 28% and leave it at that, shall we?
Estimate: $4.2 million
Unlike Fred Claus this is crappy and poorly marketed. Look for an absolute death blow this weekend as everyone in the world says, in unison, “Why would I watch this?”
Estimate: $3.2 million
No one wants to see this but it’s not hard to make a couple million bucks if you have 800 theatres. Any porn could do that without breaking a sweat.
Estimate: $2.1 million
I feel like this was a really terrible poster. I thought the poster makers had come a long way but nope, one look at this one makes you realize we still have much to learn.
Estimate: $1.9 million
Come on No Country for Old Men! I’m cheering for this one in a major way, nobody loves the Coens like this guy right here. So if I could give you one piece of advice for the weekend… you got it, buy a ticket for this. Seriously.
Estimate: $1.5 million


Marvel and DC