REACTION: The 2006 Golden Globe Nominees

The other day I read a Reuters story about a group of Turkish airline workers who sacrificed a camel because they were able to send off a bunch of commercial flights ahead of schedule. A camel. An entire camel, dead on the runway. This was an act of celebration. My point is, typically when I look over the Hollywood Foreign Press’s nominations, I always have to remind myself that this is a slightly different culture and some of the oddball choices on display here may not necessarily meet Oscar expectations. Sharon Stone has been nominated four times. Let that sink in.

Still, the Golden Globes are the closest indicators as to what will be nominated for, the big beef burrito of awards, the Oscars. As you may have already seen, the Golden Globe Nominations were announced this morning and I thought we’d take a look at how this bodes for the the Oscar contenders and who will win the Globes. Yeah, I already know! I think…

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Babel lead the way with the Golden Globes by snaring seven total. I’m sure this pleases Laremy to no end (see his review here). I thought the movie was very good overall and have no real problems with this. This bodes very well for the film’s Oscar chances. Babel was one of those movies that was critically adored by a rabid fan base but you just weren’t sure if enough Academy members took it as close to heart as everyone else. Consider Babel‘s Oscar odds significantly improved. It just might nab that fifth slot (it’s looking more and more like Letters From Iwo Jima will grab the fourth).

Let’s just nip this one in the bud right now. Bobby is not going to be nominated Best Picture. It has neither the box office or the critical support and there looks to be a enough contenders this year that it has no chance of sneaking in.

The Departed, on the other hand, is one of only two locks that appear on the above list (the other is The Queen). It looks like we may have another Marty Versus Clint showdown. Clint took it last time, but …

Little Children is hated by just as many people (if not more) than it is loved. I really want to see this movie but if there is one love-it-or-hate-it movie to be nominated for the big burrito, it will be Babel. The nomination is a little interesting, though.

Again, expect The Queen to be nominated for scores of categories. They may even make-up new categories just to throw more love at this movie. I just saw it this past week and I must say it is very good. I was surprised by how funny a lot of it was. Well acted, directed with a great screenplay.

There’s some glaring omissions at hand overall. There’s a contingent out there that thinks the softy Academy base may support The Pursuit of Happyness all the way to Oscar glory. The absence of The Good Shepherd is very, very bad news for the film. I don’t see the movie making a lot of money (not being able to say “Golden Globe nominee” in the commercials doesn’t help) and even if it gets the critical support, it would probably need some box office success to have a shot at the gold. United 93 has gotten a good deal of end-of-the-year critics’ group awards but nothing here. If there is one absent film in the bunch that the Academy will recognize, it will probably by 93, though. I think the accolades it has received, not to mention the number of top ten lists it will start appearing on, might be enough for the Academy to take it seriously. I’m not saying it’s Oscar time quite yet, but it’s still very much (and suddenly) in the game. On the other hand, consider World Trade Center done, finito. If it slipped into a Golden Globe Best Picture (Drama) nom, it might be time to take it a little more seriously, but not any more. It’s a good movie, but it’s clear the other 9/11 movie is the one everyone has their collective eyes on. Meanwhile, it’s becoming clear that The Good German is not “good” enough. Finally, Children of Men, which is expected to be on a ton of top ten lists when they start appearing in the next few weeks, is absent as well. The movie will need some box office support and loud critical support to be considered a candidate at all. Not a surprise (by now) is Flags of Our Fathers being snubbed (deservedly).

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? – Babel

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Penelope Cruz and Helen Mirren are mortal locks, write it down, dinner with the mayor. You may recall the Judi Dench/Oscar rule and I do detect a bit of sulfur in the air. Unless something retarded happens between now and January, forget Maggie Gyllenhaal (she has a better shot at a supporting role). Kate Winslet is intriguing. There may be enough people that hate the movie that it hurts her chances but she was getting buzz from jump street. One thing is certain … these are not the five nominees for Best Actress come Oscar time. Come see me in the Comedy/Musical category as to why.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? Cruz looks tempting, but Mirren is foreign royalty

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Leo is in a little bit of trouble. You have to consider him the Oscar front-runner at this point for his amazing work in The Departed. The problem is, DiCaprio is too good an actor and he may have screwed himself with Blood Diamond (will you guys go see this movie already!). In the end, he will not be nominated for Blood Diamond but there may be enough admirers of his work in that film that he ends up with no Oscar nomination at all. This happened to the L.A. Confidential cast in ’97. Adrien Brody won the Oscar because of the Nicholson/Day-Lewis debacle. When push comes to shove, though, I think he gets nominated for The Departed.

I haven’t seen Venus but there’s enough people out there who want to give O’Toole, the annual “Old Geezer” award. Oh yeah, he’s supposed to be good in it too.

Will Smith is Leo’s biggest competition at this point. Get Jiggy with it.

But everyone watch out for Forest Whitaker … a ton of critical accolades in the last week and he is well-respected throughout the Academy. He might be the developing wild card in the race.

The glaring omission that I believe will end up taking DiCaprio’s Blood Diamond place is Ken Watanabe for Letters of Iwo Jima.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? DiCaprio … I think … for The Departed

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL

This is a pretty fun category because it’s packed with legitimately good and entertaining movies. A lot of years the Golden Globes end up slumming in this area, but not this year. Borat is one big love affair but it’s honor is its nomination. The Devil Wears Prada is all about Streep’s Oscar chances, not the film’s. Thank You For Smoking is a flawed but solid, biting entry. It’s best Oscar shot, and I’m not thinking it has much of one, is screenplay.

Which brings us to the two big cheeses, Little Miss Sunshine and Dreamgirls. Dreamgirls is going to win the Oscar for Best Picture this year so that’s a big, fat duh. Little Miss Sunshine is one of those fringe Oscar films that could kick out the Babel‘s and Little Children of the world.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? Dreamgirls, easy. The Hollywood Foreign Press may be dumb, but not that dumb.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Bening and Collette’s nominations here are a “Eh, maybe”. Beyonce being nominated over Jennifer Hudson … um, yeah, that isn’t going to happen again. Hi, we’re the Hollywood Foreign Press and we prefer glitz over substance!”. This is why the Golden Globes are not the Oscars, people. What wankers.

Meryl Streep is getting closer and closer to becoming “lock”. Zellweger … aren’t we a little tired of her? The whole squinty eyes, country music love life … I’ve had enough, how about you guys? Maybe she’ll win me over with Potter, we’ll see.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? What I’d like to see is Beyonce win with Hudson running in from stage-right, snatching the Globe out of her hands, and then knocking poor Beyonce out cold in front of everyone. The crowd goes nuts and Hudson breaks off a “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going” number to the roar of applause. Jack Nicholson is the first guy to stand up, clapping and everyone follows after that. A seriously pissed Jay-Z storms out, promising to return and everyone slowly stops clapping, getting a little nervous. Reality check: Streep wins.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the annaul “They Have No Shot In Hell” nominees! Our first contestant is everyone’s favorite Kazak, Boooooooorrrrrrat! I’ll spare you guys (see: lazy). It’s very hard not to treat the Golden Globes merely as Oscar indicators (which is what I’ve been doing) so there isn’t much to take seriously here. I’m happy for all the nominees, but what the hell is Kinky Boots?

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? This is the year of Borat. I like!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

I liked Cars but I just watched Ice Age 2: The Meltdown and liked that one better. I’m not sure Monster House gets nominated over Ice Age 2 but watching the film might help. Doesn’t matter in the end, though.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? Happy Feet wins very easily. Hooray George Miller!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

This has got to be one of the most exciting races for Foreign Language film in years because if the Oscar race is this jam-packed, this cool, we have something very fun to watch over the next few months. Everyone has been going down The Lives of Others like a two dollar whore. I don’t love Pedro Almodovar’s movies like a good film lover is apparently supposed to, but Volver is definitely getting in there. Pan’s Labyrinth might have to settle for a foreign language nom (some people have been pushing a Best Picture nom here).

And this is where it gets interesting. We have two foreign language nominees … from the United Sates. Letters From Iwo Jima could pull a twofer with noms for Best Picture and Best Foreign Language film. With Letters getting an out-of-nowhere campaign and critical support, it has to be considered a real contender for that fourth Best Picture slot (after The Departed, The Queen and Dreamgirls). It’s going to be another Clint love-fest.

The Apocalypto pick sparks some interesting conversation. The movie is great (just don’t tell that to Brad or Laremy, who are still convinced that – despite a 7.7 IMDB rating, a RopeOfSilicon user grade rating of “A”, and a “B+” CinemaScore audience rating – non-critic types will think the movie is horrible). Stellar reviews and continued box office success doesn’t mean it will be nominated for Best Foreign Langauge film (see: The Passion of the Christ), but this is a big score for Gibson.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? There’s a lot of ways they can go here, which makes it so exciting. I think they will want to reward Clint in the end, though.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

I’m very happy that Adriana Barraza got nominated for Babel and pray it gets translated to an Oscar nom. I think it just might. Notes on a Scandal I’m going to be watching very closely because it could be a potential Babel spoiler in terms of a Best Picture nomination. Blanchett won’t get nominated for Babel so this would be her best shot.

Do not expect Emily Blunt (who is good), to be nominated for an Oscar although the Academy does weird shit sometimes.

Jennifer Hudson should not be your Best Supporting Actress nominee, she’s your Best Actress nominee. I know she’s showing up on a ton of supporting categories, but she is the big cheese in the movie. Of course, if the Academy wants to award Mirren and Hudson, they could pull some shit. And don’t expect Beyonce to nab a supporting nom either.

Rinko Kikuchi is really good in Babel and this nomination helps, but I think Barraza will be the only Oscar nominee in this category come January.

Maggie Gyllenhaal being left off is kind of surprising. I thought she was a lock for her work in World Trade Center. She still may have a shot yet. I think Catherine O’Hara needed this nomination in order to have a shot for For Your Consideration, so she might be done.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? Jennifer Hudson, easy.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

I really like this list overall. Affleck has gotten a number of critical group nominations but I’m not so sure the Academy thinks his days of penance should be over quite yet.

Eddie Murphy = lock for a nomination. How freaking cool is that?

I liked Jack Nicholson in The Departed, I just wished he didn’t play it so kooky. I know he was playing a character that was increasingly losing it but I thought his best moments were the ones where he tried to bond with DiCaprio’s character. If he doesn’t get a nomination here, I’m not so sure he gets an Oscar. But this helped.

Brad Pitt is really good in Babel so I zero problems with this nomination. If Babel is the fifth Oscar nominee for Best Picture, so goes Pitt’s nomination. If not, there’s no telling. The good news is this category is uncharacteristically weak this year.

I can’t tell you how ecstatic I am to see Whalberg nominated for his twenty minutes of scene-stealing work in The Departed. He’s got the best lines in the movie and he takes full advantage. This nomination is out of left-field and I would love to see it carry over.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? It’s between Murphy and Pitt, but this is Dreamgirl’s (and quite possibly Eddie’s) year.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Sorry, I just read Eastwood was nominated for Flags of Our Fathers. It happens. Hollywood Foreign Pres, what the hell are you doing? Are you mad? You’ve been hanging out with Nicole Ritchie again, haven’t you? If I’ve told you once, I’ve told you a thousand times. Nice job screwing Bill Condon, though.

Eastwood will, however, be nominated for Letters of Iwo Jima. I’m looking forward to this movie.

Stephen Frears is a no-brainer.

Inarritu’s nomination is fine by me and he should go as Babel does. But watch out for Paul Greengrass (United 93).

Scorcese is another big, fat “duh”.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? It doesn’t matter what wins Best Picture, Marty gets the gold.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

I can see all of these nominations happening and of course the Oscars differentiate between an original screenplay and an adapted one. There’s so many omissions here I wouldn’t know where to begin. Laremy might attack anyone who considers Little Children for a screenplay nomination, though. Homeboy is foaming at the mouth, Academy, beware!

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? It’s between Monahan, Arriaga and Morgan. I think Morgan ends up with the prize, though.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

I haven’t heard the Nomad score (is that even a real movie?) nor have I seen The Painted Veil yet. The Zimmer score is okay. Clint Mansell’s score should run away with this but I seriously doubt enough people have even seen The Fountain.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? Gustavo Santaolalla … because it’s fun trying to say his name. All those vowels!

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

There’s only one thing you need to know about this category … a Dreamgirls song is nominated. Nothing else really matters. Also, I’m tired of typing.

WHO WINS THE GLOBE? Yawn … Dreamgirls is victorious

That’s it for me people, the Golden Globes were just announced this morning and I’m already tired of them. See ya next time!