Super Bowl Sunday is going to rock these movies to sleep as the weekend winds to a close, but we’ve still got a few items of note to discuss. Three new releases and the “awardy” holdover numbers to project, let’s break this thing down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 3 Weeks In A Row
Chronicle
It only needs a paltry $5,500 per theater to hit this figure. It’s a brisk 90 minutes, so the theaters will get in five to six showings per screen. Let’s call that 17 showings for the weekend, at eight bucks a ticket, (national average) they only need to fill 40 seats per showing. Eminently doable, right?
What’s going to work against it is the monster that’s Sunday. So a $5m/$7m/$3m weekend is fairly likely. The film itself is well done given the resources, not exactly full-on “good” but definitely better than a B- CinemaScore. Audiences will be largely pleased.
Oh, and did you see that viral video for the film? I’m sure you have, it’s got over 5 million views on YouTube, but if not here you go:
Prediction: $15.4 million
The tracking is a bit higher, but I’m dubious. The Roommate took this weekend in 2011, but that had a cast that appealed more to women with Gossip Girl‘s Minka Kelly in the lead.
Prediction: $11.88 million
3. The Grey
Should face a rather steep decline given the word of mouth factor. If the marketing had been a little more honest I think they would have been better off long-term. Ah, well.
Prediction: $10.29 million
4. Big Miracle
It’s not getting enough screens to make a big push. Plus families watch the Super Bowl, so this doesn’t have any real demographic advantage this weekend.
Prediction: $6.65 million
5. Red Tails
Doesn’t look like it will make its budget back, at least theatrically. They should be set up for home video though.
Prediction: $6.32 million
The four through six spots are a total cluster. This version of Underworld looks poised to top the franchise rankings. Well done!
Prediction: $6.29 million
They forgot to screen it, so I’ll forget to analyze it other than to say “How did it cost $40m?” That’s just stealing money.
Prediction: $4.95 million
They spent even more here, $42m, with very little hope of recouping domestically. January new releases are basically a tax write-off.
Prediction: $4.32 million
I’m happy to see it jump up, Best Picture Nominee style, though it probably doesn’t have much hope internationally.
Prediction: $4.18 million
10. The Descendants
The Descendants has made a quiet $86m worldwide, if such a thing is possible. The Artist will compete hard for this spot, depending on theater counts.
Prediction: $3.97 million
I’m taking the Patriots by a 28-24 margin if you’re into that sort of thing, but it looks like a coin flip game to this guy. How say you? Predictions on Chronicle, Woman in Black, and Big Miracle will be gratefully and eagerly accepted.
