Box-Office Predictions: 'Paranormal Activity 3' for the Easy Win, but How Much Will It Make?

Last weekend was immensely satisfying. To accurately predict the family dollar for a come from behind victory on Sunday was pleasing, no doubt about it, and this weekend presents a massive lay-up at the top slot. Everything is coming up roses. You ready? Let’s break it down!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row

Paranormal Activity 3

Tracking is around $38m, and this would represent a growing audience ($14k per theater vs. $12.5k). But there are reasons to be bullish, such as that fresh rating on RottenTomatoes and Brad liking it when he screened it last night.

Really, though, it’s going to be a gigantic financial success no matter how it opens. The production budget on Paranormal Activity 2 was $3m … and it made $177m worldwide. At that level of profit they could hire people to go door-to-door to tell you to see it. So let’s say they blew out the budget for this one, what would that number be? $7m $10m? It doesn’t matter. Paramount has an assured victory, the only suspense is if the film can hit a 50x multiplier. Nice work, Paramount! Take a victory lap.

I think the range here is $35m to $55m. Any correct predictions outside of those parameters will be met with a tip of the cap and a stealing of your methods, provided they don’t involve a dartboard and liquor.

Prediction: $42 million

2. The Three Musketeers

There are four new (kind of) wide releases this weekend, but I don’t have Mighty Macs cracking the top ten. Feel free to predict it though. The news domestically for Three Musketeers looks dismal. People (okay, critic people) aren’t digging it. Silver lining: it has already generated $49m internationally. Looks like someone owes Germany a big THANK YOU.

Prediction: $13.5 million

3. Real Steel

A nice holdover last weekend will be followed by another respectable holdover. However, with a production budget of $110m (or so they say) this one still has plenty of work left to do.

Prediction: $9.28 million

4. Footloose

It should be the biggest dipper of the weekend. I think someone should have left their Sunday shoes on and marketed this one a bit more.

Prediction: $7.23 million

5. Johnny English Reborn

Australia and the UK already ate this one up so they have a built-in $85m international cushion. And who wouldn’t want one of those?

Prediction: $4.88 million

6. The Ides of March

Adult dramas without any international/Oscar play are going to become extinct.

Prediction: $4.76 million

7. The Thing

If someone has asked you for $38m to make this what would you have said to them? Should Universal file a police report?

Prediction: $4.16 million

8. Moneyball

I hope they remake this as a terrible soccer film for the UK to get them back for Fever Pitch.

Prediction: $3.64 million

9. Dolphin Tale

It’s a lesson as old as time itself: prosthetic marine mammal films SELL. Young aspiring filmmakers, take heed!

Prediction: $3.5 million

10. 50/50

I just wish I had some way to get the Oscar buzz going here. Maybe an online petition for Rogen?

Prediction: $2.92 million

How say you? Wanna throw out a $50m for Paranormal Activity 3, figuring the masses are starved for a big film? Or feeling like the franchise is winding down? Predictions away!

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Box-Office Oracle: ‘Paranormal Activity 3’ for the Easy Win, but How Much Will It Make?

Paranormal Activity 3