It was the biggest March weekend ever, by a large margin, with the top twelve films earning $186m overall. I looked back ten years and couldn’t find a weekend over $150m, so clearly the 3-D razzle dazzle of Alice in Wonderland brought the people to the theater in droves. As for my predictions? Well, I was clearly way off on the top spot… let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
Overperformed, even beating Edge of Darkness on per theater average.
Result: $13.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $9.78 million, which is $3.72m off for a 27.56% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $9.78 million, which is $3.72m off for a 27.56% variance.
The lowest drop of the weekend, 41.3 percent. Word of mouth must be relatively solid.
Result: $13.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $13.59 million, which is $0.29m off for a 2.18% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $13.59 million, which is $0.29m off for a 2.18% variance.
4. Cop Out
Two films bled more than Cop Out, so I need to take back my “people will hate it!” theory. Some people clearly liked it. Mea culpa.
Result: $9.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.74 million, which is $0.36m off for a 3.96% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.74 million, which is $0.36m off for a 3.96% variance.
5. Avatar
I’m a little surprised that Avatar fell twelve percent more (at 43.6 percent) than it ever has… and on the twelfth weekend. That makes very little mathematical sense given the previous trends, and the fact I assumed everyone that hadn’t seen it would be rushing to see it in time for the Oscars tonight.
Result: $7.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $9.92 million, which is $2.22m off for a 28.83% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $9.92 million, which is $2.22m off for a 28.83% variance.
6. The Crazies
A 56 percent dip, the highest of the weekend. Horror remains extremely front-loaded, though this one was actually more of a suspense film.
Result: $7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $8.2 million, which is $1.2m off for a 17.14% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $8.2 million, which is $1.2m off for a 17.14% variance.
I’m pretty dialed in on Percy Jackson at least.
Result: $5.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.82 million, which is $0.72m off for a 14.12% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.82 million, which is $0.72m off for a 14.12% variance.
Say goodbye to Valentine’s Day, you won’t be seeing it around these parts anymore.
Result: $4.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $4.62 million, which is $0.42m off for a 10% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $4.62 million, which is $0.42m off for a 10% variance.
9. Crazy Heart
I went too low again, people are prepping for the Oscars and this one has been hanging on like a champ.
Result: $3.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.32 million, which is $0.98m off for a 29.7% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.32 million, which is $0.98m off for a 29.7% variance.
10. Dear John
Oscar predictions? I’m going chalk. Bullock, Bridges, Waltz, Mo’Nique, Hurt Locker and Bigelow. Best Picture holds the most intrigue, an Avatar win is a pretty nice bet right now too.
Result: $2.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.59 million, which is $0.21m off for a 7.5% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.59 million, which is $0.21m off for a 7.5% variance.
Bonus Oscar predictions: Avatar will sweep through the technical awards. The Cove for Best Doc, and Miracle Fish for Live Action Short. I’ve got six different picks (out of 24) than Brad, and we’ve bet a cool five bucks on it. Send good wishes my way, because I’m pretty sure I’m out five dollars.
Four new releases next week, so plenty to talk about next Thursday. Until then, enjoy your Oscar evening and comment away on juggernaut that was Alice in Wonderland.
