Infinity may be a stretch, but Toy Story 5 is going beyond its limits with a new exceedingly high box office prediction. The animated sequel was already forecast to have an outstanding domestic opener that would break the record for the Pixar franchise above Toy Story 4’s, let alone the record for any movie in 2026, and now these numbers have only grown in the span of a week. That’s fantastic news for Pixar, which has struggled these last few years, and great momentum for a film that’s about to release next week on June 19 amid a summer calendar chock full of other blockbusters.
Toy Story 5 could have the biggest domestic opener since Deadpool & Wolverine
The latest box office prediction for Toy Story 5 has the film earning $165 million to $185 million in its domestic opening weekend from July 19 to July 21. This is a strong improvement on its forecast last week that had a range of $150 million to $175 million.
Both of these projections are based on reports from BoxOffice Pro, with the $165M-$185M range coming from its long-range forecast on June 12. A former analysis from the site had the movie having a domestic start over Toy Story 4’s $120 million, while this new prediction has it going above Inside Out 2’s $154 million and just below Deadpool & Wolverine’s $211 million. It also goes past the domestic starts for several successful sequels from Disney, including Moana 2’s $139.7 million and Zootopia 2’s $100.2 million. If the movie is able to reach the high-end estimate of $185 million, it would have the highest domestic opener of any animated film above Incredible 2’s $182.6 million.
A separate forecast from BoxOfficeTheory last week relayed that Toy Story 5 was continuing “to trend upward with strong generational goodwill.” It highlighted the film’s position on the calendar with both Juneteenth and Father’s Day, along with the movie’s original single “I Knew It, I Knew You” by Taylor Swift that released on June 7. The music video has already gained more than 4.7 million views on YouTube and Swift’s announcement of the song on Instagram has over 3.9 million likes, showing the strength of the film’s marketing as we head toward its release.
A box office projection for Toy Story 5 from Deadline is not as bullish as BoxOffice Pro’s and believes that the animated sequel is headed toward a domestic start of over $150 million. It warns that the tracking for Toy Story 4 overestimated its performance, suggesting that the same could happen here. Still, it admits that Toy Story 5 has broad, multi-generational appeal: “First choice right now is strong with women and men under 25. … Disney is expecting plenty of families, and everyone from mom and dad to granny and gramps.”
Apart from Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi thriller Disclosure Day, Toy Story 5 doesn’t have a lot of competition when it makes its debut. Masters of the Universe, The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, The Death of Robin Hood, Obsession, and Backrooms will still have some impact on the box office charts, but the Pixar juggernaut should be able to weather the storm. That said, Supergirl and Minions & Monsters will likely slow the film’s momentum when they come out on June 26 and July 1, respectively, so we’ll have to see if the film can ultimately surpass Toy Story 4’s $1.07 billion worldwide haul.
According to the movie’s writer-director Andrew Stanton, Woody was almost left out of the screenplay, as Tom Hanks’ character was absent in the first draft. Given that Woody already had a heartwarming farewell to the toys, it felt like reintroducing him to the group would be too much of a shoehorn, but the draft didn’t feel complete without the cowboy sheriff. Meanwhile, Hanks doesn’t believe that voice actors need a separate category at the Oscars, despite his iconic voice work for Woody.
