Disney’s upcoming Moana is facing a concerning box office forecast that is lower than many of the studio’s other live-action remakes. This 2026 musical adventure, starring Catherine Laga’aia as the intrepid Moana and Dwayne Johnson as the demigod Maui, is expected to follow much of the plot from the original 2016 animated feature (well, more than 2025’s Lilo & Stitch did to its original source). However, trailers for the film have had to wade through rough waters and the movie is releasing amid a summer theatrical calendar that is packed with family-friendly animated sequels. The Moana remake is sailing into theaters on July 10, 2026, in the United States.
Disney’s live-action Moana gets a relatively low box office forecast
An early prediction for the live-action Moana in 2026 has the film earning $80 million to $105 million in its domestic opening weekend from July 10 to July 12. It is projected to rake in somewhere between $240 million and $305 million for its entire domestic haul.
Looking at these raw numbers from a June 5 analysis from BoxOfficeTheory, it wouldn’t seem as though Moana will do poorly. Some of the highest-grossing movies so far this year, like Michael, Project Hail Mary, and The Devil Wears Prada 2, have had domestic starts ranging from $76 million to $97 million. So the remake will be able to slot in there easily.
However, with the exception of 2025’s Snow White, other Disney live-action remakes have had far higher domestic openers than this projection for Moana, including 2017’s Beauty and the Beast ($174 million), 2019’s The Lion King ($191 million), and 2025’s Lilo & Stitch ($146 million). This $80M-$105M range would be comparable to the $95 million domestic debut for 2023’s The Little Mermaid, though it would be lower than the $139 million for 2024’s Moana 2.
At this point, it’s still unknown how much Disney has spent on remaking Moana (Moana 2 cost $150 million while the live-action The Little Mermaid cost $100 million), so it’s difficult to say whether the $240M-$305M prediction for the film’s domestic haul is high enough for the House of Mouse. It should be noted, though, that Moana 2 and the recent Lilo & Stitch both made over $1 billion at the global box office, a feat that would be tough for this Moana remake to accomplish if these early projections hold.
Given the popularity of the Moana franchise over the last ten years, this box office forecast is comparatively low, though there are multiple reasons for how conservative this prediction is. The upcoming remake will be one of many family-friendly options when it arrives in theaters. It will come during the fourth weekend for Pixar’s Toy Story 5 and the second week for Illumination’s Minions & Monsters. Not to mention, it will also need to contend with the action-adventure flick Supergirl that comes out on June 26 and Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster The Odyssey that arrives one week after Moana does on July 17.
Both the film’s official teaser in November 2025 and official trailer in March 2026 have been received poorly on YouTube. At the time of writing, the like-to-dislike ratios for the videos are roughly 1 to 3 (the downvotes are calculated by way of the “Return YouTube Dislike” extension on Google Chrome). The comments for the trailer are critical of its high usage of CGI (as opposed to it actually being live-action), the wig that The Rock wears, and how the video looks like a parody fanmade trailer. Not a lot of time has passed between this live-action remake and Moana 2, so there could be some fan fatigue for the franchise.
That said, the two-hour film still has a month to raise its box office outlook as Disney ramps up advertising and marketing for the remake.
