Oz the Great and Powerful has all its ducks in a row for the repeat victory. I’ve got it coming in at $38 million even with a 53 percent drop. That dip represents something around Alice in Wonderland mixed with a healthy dose of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. If you’ve got a better line of reasoning, I’d love to hear it.
The film stands at $167 million worldwide on a hefty $215 million budget so there’s still plenty of work left to do for James Franco and company. Trivia: With a win this weekend, Oz the Great and Powerful will become the first two-time winner of 2013.
The first newcomer of the weekend to consider is The Incredible Burt Wondersone, placed tentatively at $20.5 million. Steve Carrell should have broad-based appeal, or at least broad enough to move 3 million tickets. It also has the helpful PG-13 rating to enter the arena with, unlike the movie we’re about to break down.
The Call is, of course, not very good. I can only put it at $13.8 million based on the pedigree of R-rated thrillers in March. Thankfully, the initial reports seem to indicate this was made on the cheap, which means they could be better off than Burt Wonderstone even though they are spotting that title just under $7 million this weekend. However, if the budget comes in anywhere above $30 million they are likely doomed.
Jack the Giant Slayer will continue to face withering drops. I’ve got it as the biggest dipper this weekend, 55 percent or bust.
How say you? Be a hero, make a call on The Call or The Incredible Burt Wonderstone!
Current Streak: Six weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Twenty five percent.
Reason: Could The Call or The Incredible Burt Wonderstone over-perform? Like Kevin Garnett said, “Anything is possible!”
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
The Call: not available
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone: not available
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.