Current Streak: 2 Straight Weekends #1 Predicted Correctly
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: None.
Reason: The biggest question for this weekend is just how how the Twilight finale will soar. Can it possibly reach the level of May’s The Avengers ($207 million)? How do you feel about the safety of silver medalist Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2? The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 would only need $170 million to claim that spot. So what’s the call? Let’s break it down!
A prediction on Twilight: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 requires some historical perspective. Here are the openings for all previous saga films:
- Breaking Dawn: Part 1 $138 million
($34,012 per theater) - New Moon $143 million ($35,497 per theater)
- Twilight $70 million ($20,368 per theater)
- Eclipse: $65 million ($14,510 per theater)
So where does the staggering $42,000 per theater I’m predicting come from? The finale effect. It will frontload the film (even more than they are already frontloaded, which is a bunch) and it will also attract new viewers. This doesn’t seem inherently logical to me, but there are folks out there who simply wait until the last film to get involved. Go figure.
If you’d like some comps for this effect look no further than The Lord of the Rings or X-Men. The other feather in its cap is the remarkably positive reviews. It’s the highest rated Twilight ever! Hopefully we’ll see that on a poster or two. And truthfully, it’s a legitimate film, mostly deserving of a number around 70 percent on RottenTomatoes.
The only reason I don’t see it grabbing a number higher than $168 million is the lack of (admittedly horrible) 3D dollars. We’ve come to the point in our box office world where releasing an inferior product that requires superfluous glasses does get you more dollars. Still, kudos to the Twilight finale for not going that direction.
Is there anything else worth noting this weekend?
I have Skyfall dipping just over 50% for a $42.4 million second weekend as it has already amassed $538.7 million worldwide. Can it hit $1 billion?
Lincoln is getting an additional 1,500 theaters, that’s got to help its box office chances and while some may mention Twilight has 92% of Fandango’s ticket sales at the moment, I don’t think Lincoln audiences are the advance ticketing type. Therefore, I’m giving Lincoln a healthy $9,500 per theater, but I could see a number as high as $12,000 there as it’s beautiful counter-programming against Twilight.
Both Anna Karenina and Silver Linings Playbook are beginning their limited roll-outs this weekend in 16 and 15 theaters respectively, so don’t expect any top ten results from them, but there may be some per theater averages to discuss with each.
Otherwise, enough dawdling, how say you? Calls on The Twilight Saga: Part Two will be considered, as will thoughts on Lincoln‘s expansion. Predictions away!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
