Ah, it’s Thanksgiving weekend, a time at the box office that’s turned into an ongoing love/hate relationship with the Weekend Warrior, a weekend I appreciate for its ability to bring moviegoers into theaters, but one that’s become the bane of my existence since casual moviegoers tend to be much harder to predict than the regulars. As we mentioned in our Long Distance Box Office about this weekend a few weeks back, this weekend tends to be about family, but also it’s about the impending holidays and for many people it’s about catching up on movies they may have missed.
Interview with Creator Bill Joyce & Screenwriter David Lindsay-Abaire Interview with Director Peter Ramsey Interview with Producer Guillermo del Toro The first of this Thanksgiving’s prestige releases is Ang Lee’s Life of Pi (20th Century Fox), based on the bestselling novel by Yann Martel, which literally sold millions of copies back in 2001. As we’ve seen with other bestseller-turned-movie The Kite Runner, having a book that’s popular doesn’t always mean you have the next “Twilight.” (ahem) Even though the movie stars an unknown Indian actor in Suraj Sharma, being directed by Ang Lee is going to go a long way into getting people to see it, knowing his previous work with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Brokeback Mountain, both Oscar nominees. Fox has done a great job promoting this one with exciting commercials that give a good taste of what to expect and reviews have generally been solid since the movie’s debut as Opening Night film at the New York Film Festival. (It’s currently at 94% positive on Rotten Tomatoes.) The fact that the movie is PG could also help bring in the families with older kids, although they may feel it’s not appropriate for younger kids and both Rise of the Guardians and Wreck-It Ralph are offering them competition, but the movie could play well among Christian audiences with its focus on religion and spirituality. With that in mind, we think this one is probably heading to the $20 to 22 million range for the five days (similar to Baz Luhrmann’s Australia a few years back) but it should have solid legs, especially once it starts bringing in awards and nominations, which could start happening in December. We expect this one to end up in the $75 to 80 million range, Video Interview with Suraj Sharma
At one point, there was a plan to give David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Company), starring Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro and Chris Tucker, a wide release just before Thanksgiving but those plans were changed when the movie wasn’t tracking as well as they’d hoped, so they opened it in limited release last weekend and will expand into roughly 400 theaters on Wednesday. Reviews have been great with a lot of Oscar buzz for the cast and Russell’s screenplay and that should be helped by first weekend word-of-mouth to get curious moviegoers to check it out once it plays in their town. It should be able to bring in $3 to 3.5 million over the five days, which could be enough to get it into the bottom of the Top 10, which would be a good start to a slow rollout over December to take advantage of awards. This weekend last year saw the return of The Muppets (Walt Disney), co-starring Jason Segel and Amy Adams, which opened with $41.5 million in its first six days over Thanksgiving, $29.2 million of that over the three-day weekend. Despite that strong opening, it would still take second place to The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1, which remained on top for a second week with $41.6 million over the weekend (down 70%) and $61.8 million over the five days. That was slightly less than The Twilight Saga: New Moon made over the same weekend two years earlier. Sony Animation Pictures teamed with Aardman for the holiday comedy Arthur Christmas (Sony), which should have been a big hit due to the holiday, but instead it brought in a disappointing $12.1 million over the three-day weekend in 3,376 theaters and $16.3 million in its first five days for fourth place. Martin Scorsese’s 3D fantasy-adventure Hugo (Paramount) opened in less than 1,300 theaters to take fifth place with $15.4 million in its first five days. The Top 10 grossed less than $210 million over the five days, but with strong movies like Skyfall and Lincoln and Wreck-It Ralph bolstering “Breaking Dawn” and strong new movies, that number should be bested by this year’s Thanksgiving offerings. This Week’s Predictions – 1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 (Summit) – $46.5 million -67% ($68 million five-day) 2. Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) – $35 million N/A ($47.7 million five-day) 3. Skyfall (MGM/Sony) – $26 million -37% ($38 million five-day) 4. Lincoln (DreamWorks) – $17 million -19% ($24.5 million five-day) 5. Life of Pi (20th Century Fox) – $14.6 million N/A ($21.5 million five-day) 6. Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) – $15.0 million -21% ($20.7 million five-day) 7. Red Dawn (FilmDistrict) – $11.3 million N/A ($17.8 million five-day) 8. Flight (Paramount) – $6 million -30% ($8.5 million) 9. Argo (Warner Bros.) – $3.5 million -19% ($5.1 million) 10. Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Company) – $2.4 million ($3.5 million)
French filmmaker Jacques Audiard (A Prophet) returns with the drama Rust & Bone (Sony Pictures Classics), starring Marion Cotillard as Stéphanie, a killer whale trainer who loses her legs in a bizarre accident, forcing her to rely on a boorish fighter, played by Belgian actor Matthias Schoenarts (2011 Oscar nominee Bullhead), and the two of them form a bond over their respective issues. Sir Anthony Hopkins plays legendary filmmaker Alfred Hitchcock in Sacha (Anvil! The Story of Anvil) Gervasi’s Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight), based on the time when the director was trying to make Psycho and was having difficulties with his main creative collaborator, his wife Alma, played by Helen Mirren. Also starring Scarlett Johansson and Jessica Biel as Janet Leigh and Vera Miles, respectively, as well as Michael Stuhlbarg, Toni Collette and Danny Huston, it opens in select cities on Friday. Interview with Director Sacha Gervasi Lisa Kirk Colburn’s doc Gottfried Helnwein and The Dreaming Child (First Run Features) takes a look behind the scenes of the opera “The Child Dreams” designed by Gottfried Heinwein for the Israeli Opera of Tel Aviv in 2010, based on the play by Hanoch Levin. It opens in New York at the Quad Cinemas on Friday. Next week, the month of November comes to a close with Andrew Dominik’s crime-drama Killing Them Softly (The Weinstein Company), starring Brad Pitt, and the horror sequel The Collection (LD Entertainment), from the writers of the last four “Saw” movies. You can read stuff like this and regular box office, awards and festival coverage on the new Weekend Warrior Blog and to keep up with the latest articles and posts, you can follow us on Twitter. Copyright 2012 Edward Douglas Show Comments |
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