Box Office Predictions for September 14, 2012


We’re still running around seeing movies and doing interviews at the Toronto International Film Festival so we’re going to keep this brief, but this weekend we should finally see things pick up as it will be a close race between two very different 3D movies.

Since last week, we’ve changed our mind on Finding Nemo 3D (Disney) vs. Resident Evil: Retribution (Screen Gems/Sony), and we think the 3D Pixar movie will benefit from the popularity of Pixar and lack of strong kids’ movies to come out on top of a weekend where both movies should pull in between $25 and 30 million.

This week’s movie being dumped into a wide release for no apparent reason is the Christian military drama Last Ounce of Courage (Rocky Mountain Pictures), which probably will end up outside the Top 10 with around a million dollars or slightly higher.

This week’s “Chosen One” is Josh Radnor’s second film, the comedy Liberal Arts (IFC Films), which you can read more about here.

This weekend last year saw the release of four wide releases including The Lion King 3D (Disney), which has set the bar for Disney’s other 3D rereleases by opening at #1 with $30.1 million in 2,330 theaters. Opening in third place was Nicolas Refn’s thriller Drive (FilmDistrict), starring Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Bryan Cranston and Albert Brooks, which took in $11.3 million in 500 more theaters than Lion King. Director Rod Lurie’s remake of Straw Dogs (Screen Gems), starring James Marsden, Kate Bosworth and Alexander Skarsgard tanked with just $5.1 million for fifth place, but it fared better than Sarah Jessica Parker’s comedy I Don’t Know How She Does It (Lionsgate), which took sixth place with $4.4 million, averaging less than $2,000 per theater. Ouch. The Top 10 grossed $80.5 million and though we have two movies that should do well this weekend, nothing else will make $5 million which means we may be even or down once again.

This Week’s Predictions

1. Finding Nemo 3D (Disney) – $28.6 million N/A

2. Resident Evil: Retribution (Screen Gems/Sony) – $25.8 million N/A

3. The Possession (Lionsgate) – $4.9 million -48%

4. Lawless (The Weinstein Co.) – $3.5 million -42%

5. The Expendables 2 (Lionsgate) – $2.6 million -48%

6. The Words (CBS Films) – $2.5 million -47%

7. ParaNorman (Focus Features) – $2.4 million -43%

8. The Odd Life of Timothy Green (Disney) – $2.2 million -40%

9. The Bourne Legacy (Universal) – $4 million -45%

10. The Campaign (Warner Bros) – $1.8 million -41%

All of the limited releases for this weekend can be read about here.

Next week, we’re back to our semi-regular preview column with Jennifer Lawrence in the horror remake of House at the End of the Street (Relativity), Amy Adams and Clint Eastwood have Trouble with the Curve (Warner Bros.), Karl Urban dons the helmet of Dredd 3D (Lionsgate) while Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Peña team-up for David Ayer’s police drama End of Watch (Open Road Entertainment).

You can read stuff like this and regular box office, awards and festival coverage in the new Weekend Warrior Blog and to keep up with the latest articles and posts, you can follow us on Twitter.

Copyright 2012 Edward Douglas