Spy should bask in that Melissa McCarthy glow this weekend, even with the hard R. Why so hard? Language, oddly, not sex or violence. As with The Heat this is a comedy wrapped in the serious format, and it should have plenty of crossover appeal given it takes the underused tact of a female lead.
The Heat opened near $40 million, and I’m going higher here, McCarthy’s stock continues to be on the rise no matter the quality of movie she’s turning out and Jason Statham could theoretically bring in his own crowd. It’s true late June is a better release date than early June, but I still like this one to surprise. $45.7 million for the win!
Next up, Insidious: Chapter 3. Why not just Insidious 3? Oh. Because of the second one. Speaking of, that film also opened at $40 million, just like our The Heat precedent, so why am I lowering it slightly here? Only based on competition. Not in the genre, clearly, but it faced off against The Family in 2013, a disaster that only opened at $14 million. So I’ve put this one at a still very healthy $38.3 million and move on.
The last of the new releases is Entourage. Though “bro-dom” has been derided by the press lately, there’s still a fair amount of people that want to see a light Hollywood comedy. Is $23.3 million aggressive? Well, there’s not a lot of precedent here, so it’s up to you to decide. That’s equivocation, but this is the quirkiest title on the board. Critics hate it if you’re looking for a reason to go low.
Finally, the holdover number for San Andreas. It received the softest of soft passes from our critical brethren, with the idea of it holding completely to form somehow making it an above average film. I’m looking for it to dip a bit more than the usual here, mostly because the marketing campaign, which was everywhere, has slowed down. $22.5 million is my call, though clearly 3rd place is well within reach if the bros falter.
Now it’s your turn, predictions away!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.