Dolphin Tale 2 will be your winner for another slow weekend. Thankfully, it won’t be as horrid as last weekend, then again, I think Brad mentioned that was the worst in a decade. Yeeps.
The previous Dolphin Tale opened at $19.1 million back in September of 2011. I’m predicting a modest sequel bump, though if you factored in inflation I’m probably predicting a slightly lesser result. It’s just been that sort of year at the studio cash registers. $21 million flat is where I’m coming in at. I don’t see much in the way of wiggle room trending up, but then again I’d never personally buy a ticket for this feature.
No Good Deed feels like a film that would be D.O.A, but there’s a strong precedent of black audiences showing up to see films that have black leads. That makes this a particularly tough title to figure, I’ve seen some trailers so they are definitely marketing, but one-note thrillers don’t tend to have a huge impact on the marketplace. This one could swing $5 million in either direction, but I’m calling for $17.4 million. Box office bouncing back! Hopefully this will just end up as one more example as to why everyone should be represented on film.
I guess we should get into Guardians of the Galaxy one last time? The four weekend crowns speak for themselves, this was an example of perfect timing by Disney / Marvel. Sure, that streak will come to an end this weekend, but it was a heck of a run. It will likely hit something above $650 million worldwide before all is said and done, $6.3 million of it coming this weekend. If only they hadn’t spent so much on production … ah, well.
Finally, uh, let’s try out If I Stay, because I don’t have The Drop making the top ten in limited release. They are already at $50 million on an 11 million production budget, it looks as though young Ms. Moretz will have her pick of the litter for the next decade or so. Still, this is small-ball at its finest, get your pick in early to guarantee yourself great odds. $3.7 million is the call.
That’s all I got for this weekend, things start getting interesting again after we survive one more sad one!
Current Record: 41-84-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Dolphin Tale 2: N/A
- No Good Deed: N/A
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
