Sin City: A Dame to Kill For is the new game in town, though even that feels a little tired at this point, doesn’t it? I speak of the release date delays, plus the nine years between films that had to have killed any potential for a sequel bump. The green-screen graphic novel methods also no longer seem quite so innovative. Live by the flashy effect, die by the flashy effect. But the good news is 3-D! Well, not good news for the consumer, but good news for the bottom line. The first one opened up at nearly $30 million in 2005. This version will be coming in around $20.8 million, or right on tracking. Let’s hope they kept the budget low.
On the extreme opposite end of the spectrum is If I Stay, a film that has all your emotions for the month. If you combined this and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For you might end up with one balanced film. Alas, this looks to only be geared to teen girls and car accident survivors. Weirdly, I didn’t hate this one, but there’s not much chance the fellas come out. I took The Giver as my comp, that one opened at $12.3 million, so I’m going a smidgeon over. The tracking is higher, so you can feel free to over-predict yet another August swoon. The good news is it’s hard to lose money when you’re rocking an $11 million budget, good work MGM.
When the Game Stands Tall is the mystery title of the weekend. Really, this could be a perfectly good film and it still might not make any money. $8.8 million is my call, again under tracking, I’m turning into Eeyore over here.
Any ideas what the fourth title should be? All three holdover numbers (The Giver, Let’s Be Cops, and Expendables 3) should be harsh. Just expect around a 55 to 60 percent drop for each and drive home safely. As such, let’s talk Turtles, one more time.
Last weekend Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles fell 56.5 percent, about what everyone expected, but I’m more bullish this time around. I don’t think Sin City 2 is a demo competitor, and the law of math suggests that as the numbers get smaller so too do the drops. $13.4 million, or a 53 percent dip, is where I stand. It’s going to be extremely close no matter whether y’all go over or under.
It’s your turn now, get out your divining rods and take your best shot!
Current Record: 38-78-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.