Box Office Predictions: ‘Dawn of the Planet of the Apes’ Will Rise Early to Grab Dollars

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is another clear winner this weekend, facing zero new release competition and a weakened overall summer slate. There’s no tracking just yet, odd, but I put it at a flat $69 million based on only the sequel bump. It has a sparkly 94 percent RT score, though summer movies are generally immune both ways from criticism.

Next up, let’s talk about the debacle that is Tammy. The film earned a C- Cinemascore! Do you have any idea how hard you have to work to get a C- from general audiences who are there to see your film on opening weekend? Amazing. Which means it’s going to face a serious drop, over 60 percent, all the way down to $8.5 million. Say it ain’t so, Melissa McCarthy. At least the budget was a smallish $20 million, meaning they’ll likely make a few bucks off this ill-conceived mess.

Horror always gets punished in the sophomore weekend, clearly horror fans don’t like to wait. Plus, you know, there’s only so many of those horror folk. The good news is I think Deliver us from Evil is the rare one that doesn’t actually drop 50 percent, if only because it started so small. Perhaps it’s time to build that slow groundswell momentum, if such a thing is even possible anymore, starting this weekend at $5 million.

Finally, Earth to Echo, a movie that should have been shot into outer space. But wait! They made it for $13 million, very clever work. It probably can’t reach actual profit, but it’s not quite the disaster a normal family film would be at this level of terrible box office returns. Another film that can only drop so far, the money, even as limited as it is, will go somewhere. I award you $4.9 million, Earth to Echo, and godspeed.

That’s the way it will go this weekend, but of course you’re free to try to do better!

Current Record: 28-64-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: N/A

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.

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