Transformers: Age of Extinction has a clear path towards being the first $100 million opening of 2014. Right? 4,000+ theaters and a trailer with plenty of explosions. Throw in two-time Oscar nominee Mark Wahlberg (because you know Transformers fans are avid Oscar fans) and the conditions are just right for box office domination. How high do you want to go?
Tracking is just under where I’m at, but there’s really strong arguments for a $20 million swing either way. Maybe 2014 just isn’t a year for box office might, or perhaps the bloom is off the clearly idiotic Transformers franchise. Will the 165-minute running time limit the number of possible showings? I don’t even want to mention that sub-optimal 25 percent RT score. Whatever the case, I’ll go right down the middle of tracking and hope with $112 million
Last weekend’s underwhelming winner, Think Like a Man Too opened lower than the original, completely defying the sequel bump. Was it the “Vegas-y” feel? Or just more summer doldrums? Still, with an A- CinemaScore there’s no reason to think it won’t at least put up a similar sophomore weekend. $15.2 million is the call, though there will of course be a little frontloading with that younger demographic.
The good news for Jersey Boys is that when you open this poorly you’re bound to put up a decent holdover number. I personally can’t go higher than $7.4 million, but perhaps you’re predicting a big comeback out of singing and dancing.
What else? Uh, I guess, given nothing else new is out there, we’ll aim for 22 Jump Street‘s weekend. $16.5 million is my thought, and it just hit profitability according to our metrics. I don’t hold out much hope for the international draw, but I think a third one could be in play, just to round out the trilogy.
That’s all I’ve got for now, I’ll turn it over to you, my adoring public.
Current Record: 28-64-5 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Transformers: Age of Extinction: $110 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
