This weekend’s win for Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) at the Directors Guild Awards wasn’t really a surprise. We were all pretty much looking at the DGA Awards to give us better insight into who would most likely win Best Director at the Oscars, but as is always the case, a win like that makes us second guess just which film exactly the Academy will go for when it comes to Best Picture. The fact Gravity tied with presumptive frontrunner 12 Years a Slave at the Producers Guild Awards coupled with the DGA win is obvious reason to consider Gravity as a possible winner.
Let’s first consider some facts. When it comes to the Directors Guild winner, since the DGA started handing out awards only seven times has the winner not gone on to win Best Director and only 13 times has the winner’s film not gone on to win Best Picture. Those are good numbers for Best Director, but doesn’t obviously signal a Best Picture win.
As far as the Producers Guild Awards are concerned, all six of the last PGA Award winners have gone on to win Best Picture and in the 24 years the PGA has been handing out awards, 17 times the winner has gone on to win Best Picture and this year they have two chances with the Gravity and 12 Years a Slave tie.
There’s something else to consider when making your predictions, last year there was a Best Picture and Director split as Argo won Best Picture while Ang Lee (Life of Pi) took Best Director. How likely are we to have a Director/Picture split this year? It has been 60 years since the last time there were back-to-back Best Picture and Director splits. If we consider Cuaron a lock for Best Director, that stat certainly bodes well for the film’s chance at Best Picture. Of course, given the fact voting at the Oscars is hardly scientific.
So what do I make of all of this? Well, I’m sticking with 12 Years a Slave for the win, though I have moved Gravity ahead of American Hustle on my Best Picture chart.
The rest of my predictions remain the same and you can check out the full field right here. Before you go, however, take the time to vote in the poll below and I’d love to hear your thoughts on the race in the comments below.
