What a morning eh? The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations certainly gave us something to talk about didn’t they? If you missed them you can find them right here.
I will be using those results in combination with last week’s critical awards to make some changes to the Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories with changes at the top of two of the five categories.
Best Picture
Kris Tapley from HitFix.com reminds us that outside of Braveheart, no film has ever won Best Picture at the Oscars without earning an ensemble nomination from the Screen Actors Guild. Last night Tapley, myself and Jeff Sneider from Variety were also discussing the Best Picture chances of Zero Dark Thirty, which Sneider believed to be the sure-fire front-runner at this point… without a SAG nom that is already beginning to look unlikely.
After seeing Zero Dark Thirty I was convinced of three things; 1.) It was a great movie, 2.) Jessica Chastain was my new Best Actress front-runner (I’m already back-tracking on that) and 3.) Lincoln was going to win Best Picture.
On that front, Tapley believes it’s a battle between Lincoln and Les Miserables with Argo his potential spoiler. I disagree ever so slightly, believing it’s now more a battle between Lincoln and Argo with Les Mis in the position to play spoiler.
Going back to Zero Dark, it’s too procedural and cold to be an Academy pleaser while Argo is more of an emotional feature that has been embraced by all as not only a thriller, but a very well made movie with plenty of admirers. Why I place Les Mis in third is that it’s already proving very divisive with critics. Sure, critics don’t decide the Oscars, but the divide does count for something in my opinion. Unless the 57% at RottenTomatoes from Top Critics and 55 at MetaCritic changes, I just can’t see Les Mis taking it.
Here’s my current predicted list of nominees in order:
- Lincoln
- Argo
- Les Miserables
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Life of Pi
- Moonrise Kingdom
- The Master
Check out my full list of Best Picture contenders and rankings right here.
Best Actor
While Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) didn’t receive a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild, I still believe he’ll be recognized by the Academy. Yet, the SAG nomination for John Hawkes (The Sessions) gives me greater hope he may make the final list. See how we bend these things to fit our wants and gut instinct?
However, does that mean dropping Denzel Washington (Flight) or perhaps Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)?
Silver Linings Playbook received four nominations from SAG so I think Cooper is closer to getting in than he ever has before while Washington’s chances for Flight may be slipping depending on how great a chance you believe Phoenix and/or Hawkes have at getting in.
Here’s my current predicted list of nominees in order:
- Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
- Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
- Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
- Denzel Washington (Flight)
Check out my full list of Best Actor contenders and rankings right here.
Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) not getting a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild is a small blow to his Oscar nomination chances, but I still don’t think he’ll be overlooked in this category though I believe we can start counting out his supporting compatriots Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson.
The Actors Guild, however, reaffirms expectations that Alan Arkin (Argo) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) are strong contenders, especially with Argo getting an ensemble nom and Hoffman managing to outlast what appears to be a SAG dislike for The Master considering he was the only one to get a nomination with both Phoenix and Amy Adams missing out.
NOTE: There is one small note to consider here for both Django and Zero Dark Thirty as there was talk SAG members didn’t receive screeners of either film in time for the vote. I know The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was one of the first screeners to go out so perhaps that did play a role.
Here’s my current predicted list of nominees in order:
- Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
- Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
- Alan Arkin (Argo)
Check out my full list of Best Supporting Actor contenders and rankings right here.
Best Actress
Yes, I’m back-tracking on Zero Dark Thirty in more than one category as I think I was way too quick to rush to judgment and let the critical applause sway my opinion. After winning with the Los Angeles Film Critics and the SAG love shown toward the film, I am putting Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) back in the #1 slot, ahead of Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty).
As for slots 3-5, Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) was not eligible for a Screen Actors Guild nom so don’t take her absence there as reason to believe she won’t be nominated for an Oscar. The absence of Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) may be something to consider, however, as she isn’t on the ground and actively campaigning, which may open the door for the likes of SAG nominees Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible) or New York Film Critics winner Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea).
Here’s my current predicted list of nominees in order:
- Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
- Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Check out my full list of Best Actress contenders and rankings right here.
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) has this category sewn up and for the most part I feel confident Sally Field (Lincoln), Helen Hunt (The Sessions) and Amy Adams (The Master) will also receive nominations. It’s that fifth spot that raises some questions.
The Screen Actors Guild didn’t nominate Adams and instead offered up Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) and Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) in their final two slots. Smith I’ll give a chance, but that Kidman nom is unlikely to translate to an Oscar nod.
Here’s my current predicted list of nominees in order:
- Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
- Sally Field (Lincoln)
- Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
- Amy Adams (The Master)
- Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Check out my full list of Best Supporting Actress contenders and rankings right here.
Remember, you can stay up-to-date on all of my Oscar predictions by visiting the Oscar predictions home right here and be sure to check out “The Contenders” homepage where I have predictions, award history, the awards calendar, the Oscar Overture, studio For Your Consideration links and more.
