Clearly I’ve chosen what is arguably the most anticipated film of 2012 for this question, but it’s nonetheless a serious question as Magnolia prepares to debut Tim and Eric’s Billion Dollar Movie on Facebook tomorrow night, February 18, two weeks before it arrives in theaters.
The online screening will take place at 6pm PST, so this won’t be a click on over and watch it whenever you want kind of thing. It will be a one-time only event and while fans are watching they will be able to chat directly with stars Tim Heidecker and Eric Wareheim all for $10 a piece.
My question is, why don’t major studios do this? After all, it’s just another screening and they are getting the money directly.
The Facebook live event is part of a partnership Magnolia struck up with a company called Milyoni, which specializes in such events. Through the use of their Social Live application fans will be able to watch and chat at the same time, creating quite a massive social frenzy that would be impossible to duplicate anywhere else. Buzz for the film will surely ramp up in the right demographics and everyone essentially wins… fans get their movie, studios get their money and as the film heads to theaters buzz that wasn’t originally there is at an all-time high. Who loses?
I would also wager a guess that theater chains wouldn’t be as opposed to this idea. This is different than last year when Universal proposed debuting Tower Heist On Demand for $60 three weeks after its release. That was a situation where just anyone could plunk down some money to watch the film at any time rather than specific times, and at that price you’re essentially guaranteeing anyone that’s going to take advantage will invite friends over to watch it with them to make up for the exorbitant price.
Plus, when the price is $60 everyone feels it no matter what they paid and the chance of getting people to the theaters afterward I would imagine being much slimmer. Not to mention the idea of playing it after the film is in theaters and still so close to the release date is ridiculous. That’s just asking the audience to stay home.
So how do I see this Facebook option playing out and could it actually be pulled off with something like The Dark Knight Rises? Let’s look at the numbers…
First off, a studio would simply need to set up a weekend about one or two weeks in advance of a film being released. Establish something like three times on a Saturday and three times on a Sunday to show your film in what we’ll call “virtual theaters.”
For the purposes of this article I spoke with Dean Alms, VP of Marketing and Biz Development at Milyoni, about the logistics of such a situation and he told me each screening time could theoretically hold 50,000 virtual viewers at the same time, watching in high-definition (depending on the capabilities of each user’s bandwidth) without jeopardizing the servers.
So, with that in mind we’ll say each “virtual theater” has no more than 50,000 seats available for each screening and they will be sold on a first come, first served basis. Just like real movie theaters, these theaters sell out.
As far as pricing, Tim and Eric’s Billion Dollar Movie is clearly not the size of a big budget Hollywood blockbuster and if Magnolia is charging $10 for this one-time screening you’d expect prices for something such as The Dark Knight Rises to be at least double. So let’s say that’s the case.
We’ll charge $20 per ticket and if we’re looking at an event where the studio is able to bring in the director or members of the cast for a chat session during the film it costs something like $25-30. (How much would you pay to watch The Dark Knight Rises early online if it included a live chat session with Christopher Nolan?)
With six screenings in two days at $20 a ticket and upwards of 50,000 people watching that’s $6 million you’re bringing in, not to mention the buzz being built and the fact it may help in limiting the amount of piracy studios are so concerned about.
What exactly does $6 million for six screenings mean? Well, it’s enough to score seventh place at last weekend’s box-office, but, granted, we’re talking about a best case scenario.
Of course, the concern will be people who spend $20 and bring five friends over to watch with them. What about that $80 loss you just suffered? It’s a fair point, but if it were me I would look at it as money spent, not lost, on a marketing opportunity. After all, I still imagine people willing to pay that much to watch a film during an online event will still be likely to return and see it once it arrives in theaters… if it’s any good.
In speaking with Alms, he also told me for past events such as the live streaming of Widespread Panic from the Austin City Limits concert last June, that of the over 2,300 people that watched the event, 50% of them tuned in after the concert had already started after reading comments on Facebook from those that were currently watching. So just imagine a studio’s first virtual screening of a film doesn’t fill up, but the buzz generated by that first screening brings more into the second, third and fourth screenings. By the last screening of the weekend you may have a full house and the buzz is built.
While I used a major film such as The Dark Knight Rises as an example and a price tag of $20, this idea would most likely service films from smaller outfits even better.
For example, last year at the 2011 Sundance Film Festival, Fox Searchlight picked up Sound of My Voice, and it will finally be hitting theaters on April 27. The delay wasn’t due to the fact it isn’t a good movie — in fact I’ve heard it’s an excellent movie — but because Searchlight was trying to figure out how to market the unique thriller that centers on a couple who infiltrate a cult in the San Fernando Valley.
As far as I’m concerned this sounds like a perfect candidate for exactly what I outlined above. Maybe set up two screenings over the weekend prior to the film’s release, or two weeks early, charge $12 or so per screening and use Twitter and Facebook to get the word out. A great point Alms made during our conversation is how close this brings the studio to its customers and using Facebook’s targeting tools a studio could create Facebook ads that specifically target the audience they’re aiming for and after that let the film and the audience do all the work.
I honestly don’t see a downside for a studio to explore this option. They have all the control in this situation and with brief, paid for limited runs that essentially build buzz for a theatrical release I don’t even see how the theater chains could complain.
