This was the biggest weekend since Inception‘s second weekend back on July 23 as the top twelve films took in $146,950,000. However, with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I already tracking for $130 million for its release on November 19, we should probably hold off discussing records for the time being.
This week Laremy didn’t do too poorly with his predictions with an average percentage of error of only 19.3% with seven accurate placement predictions. Let’s see how well he did as well as how well you predicted the weekend’s newcomers.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly: 1 Week In A Row
Just like Megamind, Due Date fell just under tracking and Laremy was also just a bit under with his prediction while it kept right on pace after its $12.2 million on Friday, but it still comes in more than $10 million less than the $44.9 million opening for The Hangover, which blitzed the box-office last year. The Hangover also showed minor dips in its follow-up weekends going 27.1%, 18.4% and 36.4% in its first three weekends after opening. I don’t expect the same success for Due Date.
Another difference between the two films is The Hangover was made for $35 million while Due Date was reportedly made for $65 million. That’s a major difference and a figure that pretty much signals this one is going to be depending heavily on DVD and Blu-ray sales to make a run at profit.
As for user predictions, Ian nailed it right on the nose and The Check Spot wasn’t too far off. Here’s the top five.
Ian – $33.5 million
The Check Spot – $33.2 million
Kid – $34.3 million
Athar – $31.6 million
goavs – $35.5 million
Result: $33.5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $26.84 million, which is $6.66m off for a 19.88% error.
In third was the weekend’s other new wide release, Tyler Perry’s For Colored Girls and if history proves anything for Perry films this one is looking at probably a $45 million overall haul. However, this is also Perry’s first R-rated film so that could prove to hurt its chances. No surprises over the weekend after its $7.4 million Friday and Laremy’s prediction of $17 million wasn’t too far off, but some of you were able to get a bit closer. However, some of you had no confidence in this flick with one prediction as low as $7.4 million, which did cover Friday’s total.
Here are the top five user predictions.
John Debono – $20.3 million
The Check Spot – $21 million
DamienB – $21.2 million
Chuck Bartowski – $22.8 million
Athar – $23.5 million
Result: $20.1 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $17.01 million, which is $3.09m off for a 15.37% error.
Continuing on we move into familiar territory with Red still standing VERY strong with only a 17.5% dip in its fourth weekend. Red is now approaching $72 million and Summit Entertainment has to be VERY happy and who isn’t expecting the announcement of a sequel now?
Result: $8.8 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $7.65 million, which is $1.15m off for a 13.07% error.
In fifth is the massive dropper, Lionsgate’s Saw 3D, which Laremy predicted only a 55% dip. Wrongo, but missing this one didn’t prove too fatal as his $10.14 million prediction was still only $1.94 million off.
Result: $8.2 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.14 million, which is $1.94m off for a 23.66% error.
Paranormal Activity 2 fell 55.8%, but has so far amassed $77.2 million on a $3 million budget. If Paramount hasn’t already greenlit a third film their execs deserve to be fired.
Result: $7.2 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $7.76 million, which is $0.56m off for a 7.78% error.
Jackass 3D went over $100 million last weekend and still only dropped 40.1% this weekend. I read an interview with Danny Boyle talking about the reported faintings while people screened his new film, 127 Hours and he said, “We’ve definitely had screenings where some people had seen too much, and we think it’s an empathy thing, not a gross-out thing… You’ll see far worse in Jackass 3D or other movies. But James pulls you in so much with the performance, and you feel so vulnerable.”
Yeah, you’ll see far worse and people are continuing to see it it seems.
Result: $5 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $3.74 million, which is $1.26m off for a 25.2% error.
Clint Eastwood’s Hereafter didn’t suffer too big a dip, only falling 37.4%, but this one didn’t open too great, which means we aren’t talking about a ton of money. The film is now over $28 million, but next weekend’s new releases should mean this is the last we hear of it in the top ten.
Result: $4.02 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $3.62 million, which is $0.4m off for a 9.95% error.
The Social Network will end its run in the box-office top ten this week after six straight weeks. The film has crossed $85 million, but it will remain part of the conversation for many months to come as Oscar season is really close to full swing.
Result: $3.6 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $1.97 million, which is $1.63m off for a 45.28% error.
As for other releases, I saw some of you mentioning Conviction in Laremy’s Oracle article and it only managed $1.5 million for the weekend. Summit’s limited release of Doug Liman’s Fair Game in 46 theaters only turned up a disappointing $700,000.
Fox Searchlight’s limited four theater release of Boyle’s 127 Hours earned $265,925, making for $66,481 per theater. Speaking of 127 Hours I interviewed director Danny Boyle on Friday as a matter of fact. We discussed not only 127 Hours, but Trainspotting 2, 28 Months Later, Maximum City, why he dropped out of directing My Fair Lady and he tells me what his favorite movie of all-time is and why. I’ll be publishing that bad boy tomorrow. So be on the look out.
Otherwise, next week sees the Wednesday release of Paramount’s Morning Glory and on Friday comes Skyline (which apparently won’t be screened for critics) and Unstoppable. Anyone want to make any early predictions?
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