Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 2

It looks as though Wrongturn687’s call of $58m was the closest to the mark, predictions were all over the place. The weekend’s top twelve films grossed $170m, the biggest April weekend we’ve seen. But it wasn’t big enough to bring my $83m prediction home. Let’s break it down!

#1 movie predicted correctly: 5 Weeks In A Row

Clash of the Titans

A massive Easter Sunday dip is predicted, with the film only projected to bring in $13m on Sunday. Was this a refutation of 3-D? Or is a $61m April opening impressive for a film without massive stars?

One thing is sure, with $125m production budget, Clash of the Titans still has plenty of work to do. A $60m opening usually equates to somewhere around a $180m overall (domestic), so Clash will need some international dollars to roll in. Any thoughts on how it will do in other regions?

My guess is plenty of people chose 2-D over 3-D here, or perhaps they just didn’t have enough 3-D saturation to get a boost. It also wasn’t a great movie, word of mouth might have tailed off as the weekend progressed. Perhaps the NCAA Tournament derailed it a smidgen, or maybe no one is into gods and monsters these days. With that, I think I’m officially out of theories.

Result: $61.4 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $83.09 million was $21.69m off for a percentage error of 35.33%.

2. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too?

This opened $8m above the original, a very nice sequel bounce. Mr. Perry continues to make profitable movies for less money, something even the major studios often have troubles with.

Result: $30.1 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $21.55 million, which is $8.55m off for a 28.41% variance.

3. How to Train Your Dragon

How to Train Your Dragon only fell 33 percent, the best dip of the weekend. Clearly the Easter weekend helped.

Result: $29.2 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $26.24 million, which is $2.96m off for a 10.14% variance.

4. The Last Song

I overrated the Miley demo. That strong Wednesday was just an example of frontloading, not of overall demand.

Result: $16.2 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $21.38 million, which is $5.18m off for a 31.98% variance.

5. Alice in Wonderland

Disney is making a boatload on this film. They would have made even more if all the 3-D screens weren’t pulled.

Result: $8.2 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.81 million, which is $0.61m off for a 7.44% variance.

6. Hot Tub Time Machine

This is pretty much a BINGO, but the $36m budget means the studio is sad, as the film hasn’t even hit $30m cume yet.

Result: $8 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $7.76 million, which is $0.24m off for a 3% variance.

7. The Bounty Hunter

How in the world did this gain 44 theaters this weekend? Blackmail?

Result: $6.2 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $7.47 million, which is $1.27m off for a 20.48% variance.

8. Diary of a Wimpy Kid

$46m on $15m worth of budget. It’s all success from here on out.

Result: $5.5 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $4.85 million, which is $0.65m off for a 11.82% variance.

9. She’s Out of My League

Yikes. The largest drop of the weekend, because it lost 1,000 theaters. We’ve officially closed the book on She’s Out of My League, and the numbers aren’t pretty. Unless the studio was getting an 80/20 split up front.

Result: $1.463 million

My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $1.95 million, which is $0.487m off for a 33.29% variance.

10. Shutter Island

Finally passed Van Helsing on the all-time Horror – Period charts. No, I didn’t adjust for inflation, I like Scorsese too much for that sort of thing.

Result: $1.462 million

My rank: Not Ranked

How say you? Did you see anything this weekend? Do you think the message has been sent regarding postproduction 3-D? Or is $60m enough to ensure that we’re looking at a slew of cheapo conversions? Comment early and often!

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