It was one of those good news / bad news type of weekends. The good news is I was dialed in on Shutter Island‘s number. The bad news is I was way too bullish on Cop Out‘s dollar amount. Still, a win for fans of cinema, even if the top twelve grossed under $110m.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
2. Cop Out
$5m over, though it was probably all a psychological ploy on my part. I knew I’d be disappointed if this took the weekend, so I predicted it would just to bring some happiness if it went down like that. As far as the finances go, this is looking at a $60m run at the box office, which would be decent given the $27m production budget. One caveat: they had to have spent massive amounts marketing this one. And it’s only going to get weaker with word of mouth.
Result: $18.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $23.625 million, which is $5.125m off for a 27.7% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $23.625 million, which is $5.125m off for a 27.7% variance.
3. The Crazies
Wow, a very nice result for a film that only cost $20m to make. Yeah, horror is always frontloaded, but they’ll still make a decent profit here.
Anyone out there see it? I’m seeing it tonight so I can talk about it on Monday’s Slashfilmcast. Tune in online if you’re free on Monday around 7:30pm est.
Result: $16.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $14.856 million, which is $1.644m off for a 9.96% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $14.856 million, which is $1.644m off for a 9.96% variance.
4. Avatar
Still refuses to falter. That’s eleven weekends in a row in the top four, a feat I’d have though impossible these days. It needs another four weekends in the top five to crack the top ten all-time on that list. Only three films have had that sort of streak in the past twenty years.
Result: $14 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $11.59 million, which is $2.41m off for a 17.21% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $11.59 million, which is $2.41m off for a 17.21% variance.
I appreciate the spoiler on Percy Jackson commenter Mystery gave me on Thursday’s Oracle, now I can quit asking questions. Let’s also give some overdue credit to M1, who had Cop Out in the correct position; only $1.3m off on the result.
Result: $9.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.158 million, which is $1.642m off for a 16.76% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.158 million, which is $1.642m off for a 16.76% variance.
There weren’t a lot of big drops this weekend, as it seems box office was already hitting rock bottom. That’s my explanation for the 43 percent dip here, unless someone has a better idea.
Result: $9.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $7.565 million, which is $1.935m off for a 20.37% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $7.565 million, which is $1.935m off for a 20.37% variance.
7. Dear John
My second worst result of the weekend, and on such a low number. Blerg. Dear John has now made three times the production budget back, making it a go for pure profit. That means you can expect a ton more Nicholas Sparks in your life.
Result: $5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.851 million, which is $1.149m off for a 22.98% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.851 million, which is $1.149m off for a 22.98% variance.
8. The Wolfman
They are going to need to put out a hell of a DVD here. Unless they just throw in the towel.
Result: $4.123 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $4.434 million, which is $0.311m off for a 7.54% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $4.434 million, which is $0.311m off for a 7.54% variance.
My contract states that I don’t have to talk Tooth Fairy once it has been out for six weekends. Rules are rules.
Result: $3.45 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.911 million, which is $0.539m off for a 15.62% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.911 million, which is $0.539m off for a 15.62% variance.
10. Crazy Heart
That’s a bingo! Finish strong, that’s my motto. JM and Nick nailed it too, kudos to them.
Result: $2.54 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.5 million, which is $0.04m off for a 1.57% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.5 million, which is $0.04m off for a 1.57% variance.
How say you? Any surprises on this slow box office weekend? Have a number on Alice in Wonderland already? I’ve seen predictions of $200m in total domestic box-office out there, which feels high to me, because that would indicate a $70m opening weekend. Only one thing is for sure: Shutter Island won’t be winning for a third time.
