Box-Office Oracle: Feb. 26 – Feb. 28, 2010

#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
I am going out on a limb here, most folks have Shutter Island taking a second weekend in a row. And truly, Cop Out has plenty of things working against it. First off, though he has fans, Kevin Smith films don’t open particularly well. His biggest opening ever is $11m, with Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, so this would need to double that number. The next bit of bad news is the film itself. It isn’t very good, which will hurt it as the weekend progresses.

But I’m counting on one major factor here: marketing. Warner Bros. knows they need to pack them in opening weekend, because this is going to sink like a stone, so they’ve been blasting the airways with ads. It’s going to work, at least for this weekend. I look for Cop Out to build a big lead on Friday night and barely hang on.

Prediction: $23.625 million

Word of mouth seems to be decent, so I can’t predict anything more than a 45 percent dip is going to transpire.
Prediction: $22.585 million
I think something like a The Hills Have Eyes opening will happen here. Remake, some nice reviews, and an early year release. Should be good enough for third place.
Prediction: $14.856 million
Trivia Time! It took Avatar a little over seven days to make $160m, the same amount all of Kevin Smith’s films have made, combined, over the course of history, at the box office. Impress your friends with that one.
Prediction: $11.59 million
I don’t want to get into spoilers here, but does Percy get the lightning back? Or was he the one stealing it to begin with? I haven’t seen it… enlighten me.
Prediction: $8.158 million
Plummeted 70 percent last weekend, yet still holds the theater count lead. Ahhh, contractual obligations! You know the theaters are loving that.
Prediction: $7.565 million
Lost in V-Day plunging was Wolfman also getting drilled, falling a nasty 68.6 percent.
Prediction: $4.434 million
Did you notice the three decimals places this time? I’m predicting all the way out to the thousands, all for you.

Okay, that’s sort of a lie. I’ve always predicted to the exact dollar, it’s just now the article features room for it. Huzzah!

Prediction: $3.851 million
I’ll ding it 25 percent and move on, while we’re all still lucid.
Prediction: $2.911 million
Continues to gain steam and theater counts. By the time Jeff Bridges wins his Academy Award next Sunday you’ll have a pretty decent shot of seeing this in a theater near you.
Prediction: $2.5 million

How say you? Feeling frisky enough to take Shutter Island to vanquish me? We’ve got an interesting, if low revenue, weekend on our hands.

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