Wow. That is an ouchie. First up, let’s give some love to the bold folks who picked Dear John to win: The Checkspot, Cinejab, Chuck Bartowski, Oscar Smarty, and chris_sc77. Chuck Bartowski even had a $30m call up on Thursday, proof positive that you can’t stop the hit NBC show, Chuck. What a way to lose a three month streak. Let’s break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
1. Dear John
It rolled. The Notebook opened at $13m back in 2004, so I’m not sure where the precedent was for this. Could female audiences have been starved for content, and When in Rome wasn’t doing the trick? The budget here was $25m which means you can expect a ton more Sparks’ content in your future.
Hmmm, Message in a Bottle opened at $16.7m in 1999, once you adjust for inflation you’re a little closer to a $30m explanation. Still, this one clearly caught me by surprise.
Result: 32.4 million (My rank: #3, $15.7m off)
2. Avatar
It wasn’t a case of Avatar under-performing, it only fell 25 percent. For trivia’s sake the film that knocked off Titanic back in April of 1998 was… (drumroll, please) Lost in Space. Remember that one?
Result: 23.6 million (My rank: #1, $.8m off)
Opening a guy focused actioner on Super Bowl Sunday is either crazy insane or insane crazy. I’m not sure which one I’m leaning towards just yet.
Result: 8.1 million (My rank: #2, $9.9m off)
Back on track! Sorry, that’s my lame version of Finke’s TOLDJA, which is of course also completely lame.
Standing at $30m on a budget of $80m isn’t so bueno.
Result: 7.0 million (My rank: #4, $1m off)
I’m getting on a little roll here. Tooth Fairy needs around $80m in revenue, somehow, someway, to start feeling financially healthy. It could happen, but it will probably come down to the DVD treatment.
Result: 6.5 million (My rank: #5, $1m off)
6. When in Rome
No production budget has been released/rumored/estimated. Anyone have any ideas out there? Any friends who worked on the set?
Result: 5.5 million (My rank: #6, $0.9m off)
I don’t have much to say on this title except for: Saints 31 Colts 27. I’m calling that four hours before the game starts, and in a way both this film and that pick are all about faith.
Result: 4.8 million (My rank: #7, $0.5m off)
8. Crazy Heart
Hey now, there’s another surprising result. I couldn’t be happier for Jeff Bridges, I’m a long-time fan. Glad to see people choosing an interesting film for an afternoon out.
Result: 3.6 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
9. Legion
Here’s a question for the group: Do you think movie-related toys sell as well as they did back in the ’80s? Do kids want to buy Transformers after they see the film? I would think that the faster life-cycle for movies is hurting the toy industry, but that’s just a theory. Anyone else have an opinion on that one?
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #9, $0.3m off)
10. Sherlock Holmes
Sherlock Holmes spends its seventh straight weekend in the top ten, which would have been pretty impressive if not for Avatar‘s massive run.
Result: 2.6 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
How say you? Did you catch Dear John, and was it worth seeing? Can we expect more out of this Nicholas Sparks fellow? Is Channing Tatum now a box-office draw? So many questions, so little time, but I look forward to your comments. Someone has to make sense of this weird weekend.
