The last time I didn’t hit the number one slot a little movie called Saw VI was getting drilled by Paranormal Activity. Some time has passed, eh? This is the week I could be in trouble, as early ticket sales suggest Dear John is gaining traction, but I think the R rating of From Paris with Love and the awfulness of Dear John will doom them.
Plus, Avatar is coming off of nine Oscar nominations and Super Bowl Sunday will hurt From Paris with Love more than Avatar. That’s my take anyway, though I of course reserve the right to be wrong. Lastly, kudos to Avatar for taking over the top slot on the box-office oracle logo for what could be a very long time.
This is a fun little movie. I wouldn’t claim it’s logical, or without flaws, but I would recommend it to friends of mine who were fans of silly and violent cinema. It could have a nice Friday night before coming back to the pack. I’m putting it at a number about 20 percent higher than Ronin per theater, because that seems to be the closest in terms of pedigree.
After catching When in Rome I had to skip screening Dear John. I couldn’t risk it killing my morale. It will do well with segments of the younger demo, they love Channing Tatum, but I’ve got it opening like Nights in Rodanthe. Yep, I think there are exactly the same amount of older romantics as there are younger ones. Bold, right?
I laughed seven times, so it’s not a completely unfunny film. I just wish they would have run with the “From the director of Ghost Rider!!” trailer idea I pitched them.
It will pass Waterworld (not adjusted for inflation) on the Post-Apocalyptic charts at some point in the next week. So that’s something. They’ve also made more than 10x the amount The Road cleared domestically.
Many of the films that received Oscar nominations are getting 500 or 600 extra theaters this weekend, wreaking havoc with my charts. My charts like it best when things are stable.
On that note, bonus predictions!
#11 Lovely Bones: $2.9m
#12 Crazy Heart: $2.7m
#13 Sherlock Holmes: $2.6m
#14 It’s Complicated: $2.1m
#15 Squeakquel: $1.6m
#16 Frozen: $1.0m
It took 18 weeks, but An Education will finally crack the top ten this weekend. Quite a journey!
Estimate: $3.0 million
How say you? Do you dare to pick against Avatar‘s mathematically improbable run? Am I being too hard on Dear John? Planning to see From Paris with Love? Comment now, before it’s too late. And oh yeah, one more bonus prediction, take the Saints on Sunday. Trust me.
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