My new goal for the year: hit the number one movie each and every weekend. Sure, there will be some tough calls, but if I take my vitamins, keep hitting the gym, and study hard, I know I can do it. It’s like George Michael said, you gotta have faith.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 14 Weeks In A Row
1. Avatar
JM’s sparkly $29.7 call led the pack. As for those of y’all that had Edge of Darkness beating Avatar… well, that didn’t happen.
Programming note: Avatar‘s card on The Oracle logo will take the top spot once it is number one domestically, because that’s what we predict around here. As it’s only $6m away, it’s looking pretty likely to appear on Thursday’s prediction column.
Result: 30.0 million (My rank: #1, $3.3m off)
Not a great result for Mad Mel. The R rating didn’t help matters, nor does the $80m production budget. Could it be that people are “over” Mel Gibson?
Dan Tralder’s $17.2m call was spooky accurate here. Well played.
Result: 17.1 million (My rank: #2, $4.4m off)
3. When in Rome
Still, less than two million people saw it. The budget had to have been over $50m, right? So hopefully they can still find a way to lose money on this project.
Result: 12.0 million (My rank: #3, $1.4m off)
I’m not sure why I was so down on this product, but I think it had something to do with the weekend as a whole. The weekend dropped 16 percent from last weekend, I thought it would be closer to a 20 percent dip. Live and learn.
Tooth Fairy stands at $42m in revenue on a $48m budget. They will need a few more efforts like this one to profit.
Result: 10.0 million (My rank: #6, $3.3m off)
By this time last year four different movies had taken a weekend. This year? Only Avatar. As for The Book of Eli, well, they need another $120m from ticket and/or DVD sales. Decent movie though.
Result: 8.7 million (My rank: #5, $1.1m off)
6. Legion
I’m impressed they made this on a production budget of $26m. That means they are still alive and kicking where the profit game is concerned, though a 61 percent drop this weekend wasn’t ideal.
Result: 6.8 million (My rank: #4, $1.6m off)
Whether you like the movie or not, we can all agree this was released with very little skill. It should have been a November movie, no question about it.
Result: 4.7 million (My rank: #7, $0.7m off)
I’m a little sad they are fast-tracking the sequel to Sherlock Holmes, but only because I wanted to see what Guy Ritchie did with Lobo. Anyone out there read Lobo? One of my favorite characters as a kid.
Result: 4.5 million (My rank: #8, $0.8m off)
It will hit $400m worldwide cume; clearly these little Chipmunks have global appeal.
Result: 4.0 million (My rank: #10, $.8m off)
10. It’s Complicated
$160m on a budget of $85m. But with Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin hosting the Oscars, can they expect a little DVD bump?
Result: 3.7 million (My rank: #9, $.1m off)
How say you? Any surprises? Was Mel Gibson never truly bankable? Is Avatar guaranteed eight straight? Did you see When in Rome? Comment away, the floor is yours!
